Senate GOP smashing political spending information in Texas with ad-buying binge for Ken Paxton

Lawyer Normal Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas, walks on stage at Republicans’ midterm conference in Dallas on Sept. 9, 2026. Credit score: Texas Tribune / Eddie Gaspar

WASHINGTON — At first of September, Democrat James Talarico was dominating the airwaves, having spent tens of tens of millions of {dollars} on adverts selling his U.S. Senate bid as nationwide Republicans publicly debated whose coffers ought to be tapped to rescue Ken Paxton in Texas.

Thirty days and $122 million later, it’s Talarico who’s being swarmed by exterior cash as Republicans, led by the primary exterior group related to Senate GOP management, have pumped unprecedented quantities of cash into the Lone Star State.

The astonishing spike comes after Republicans entered September having purchased lower than $6 million value of adverts within the three months since Paxton locked up the nomination. Past the $122 million GOP spending blitz in September alone, the celebration has reserved one other $66 million in future airtime by means of Election Day, in accordance with advert monitoring agency AdImpact.

Paxton, who has been considerably outraised by Talarico, accounted for simply $1.2 million of the GOP spending final month. He, too, is ramping up his exercise now, launching a $20 million advert purchase Friday, his first main statewide advert marketing campaign.

Nonetheless, it’s the skin cash that might basically reshape a race that has leaned in Talarico’s favor, with most public polls displaying the Democrat narrowly forward. Texas PAC, the entity related to Senate Majority Chief John Thune, has spent $131 million so far, in accordance with federal filings — dwarfing all different teams. President Donald Trump’s tremendous PAC has additionally kicked in almost $24 million.

Filings with the Federal Election Fee, which monitor impartial expenditures that embrace TV, radio and digital adverts, in addition to mailers, paid textual content messaging and different types of electioneering, present that exterior teams from each events have mixed to spend over $205 million on the final election. Over 98% of that cash has been spent in help of Paxton, funding a mixture of adverts selling the legal professional common and attacking Talarico, largely aired on broadcast TV and streaming providers.

By any metric, Republicans have spent an unlimited amount of cash to defend a Senate seat in a state the place the GOP has not misplaced a statewide race since 1994, the longest energetic run of one-party dominance anyplace within the nation. Democrats final gained a U.S. Senate race in Texas in 1988.

What’s enjoying out is exactly the state of affairs Thune and different Senate Republicans feared in the course of the main, once they warned {that a} Paxton win over Sen. John Cornyn would jeopardize the seat and require 9 figures of marketing campaign money in a cycle with quite a few Senate battlegrounds.

All informed, Texas’ 2026 Senate race had seen almost $259 million in advert spending on the final election by means of the tip of September, already surpassing the $202 million spent on the 2024 conflict between Sen. Ted Cruz and Democrat Collin Allred.

The $259 million determine, for context, is greater than 15 occasions what Victor Wembanyama will earn from the San Antonio Spurs subsequent season. And it’s equal to over 32 million brisket sandwiches from Buc-ee’s.

That’s to not point out the costly primaries in each events earlier this yr, particularly on the GOP aspect. Throughout the first and common elections, each events — candidates, PACs and different exterior teams — have spent a staggering $432 million on Texas’ Senate race.

A lot of Texas PAC’s cash has been used to relentlessly assault Talarico over his help of transgender Texans. The spots often embrace a clip of the Austin Democrat saying that “defending trans Texans is one thing we now have to do each day,” together with repurposing a 2024 Trump advert by saying Talarico is “for they/them, not you.”

Talarico, in the meantime, has spent $61 million on adverts because the common election started, per AdImpact, wherein he has sought to positively outline himself as a person of religion and emphasised his file as a instructor and a legislator. He has additionally attacked Paxton over quite a few allegations of corruption and different improprieties — the very file that fueled institution Republicans’ earlier fears of a Paxton nomination.

Whereas Republicans are confronting the unnerving risk of a statewide loss in Texas, in addition they need to play protection elsewhere. Senate contests in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Ohio have all seen tight polling, as Trump’s sagging job approval places the GOP-controlled seats in play and attracts sources away from pickup alternatives like Michigan and New Hampshire.

Texas, with 20 media markets and a bevy of aggressive races, is among the many costliest states within the nation for political campaigns. However the prospect of a Paxton loss seems to have pressured the Senate GOP’s hand. Thune at the moment oversees a 53-47 majority, which means Republicans might afford solely two extra seat flips if Texas goes blue.

Whereas Republicans flooded the airwaves in September, polls shifted solely barely in Paxton’s favor. The Texas Tribune’s ballot tracker — which features a weighted mixture of all publicly launched polls — discovered Talarico at 47.4% and main by 3 share factors on Sept. 1. One month later, Talarico is at primarily the identical place — 47.3% — and now leads Paxton by a 2-point margin. That accounts for a latest inside ballot from Paxton that put the Republican forward by 3 share factors.

Whereas Talarico is being massively outspent, the Democrat — who has been the perfect fundraiser amongst Senate candidates within the nation — is ready to earn extra per greenback than the skin teams as a result of candidates have entry to a decrease unit fee by legislation.

In line with AdImpact, Republicans had accounted for 72% of spending on broadcast adverts within the Texas Senate race by means of the tip of September. However that gave them simply 54% of the particular broadcast airings, when measured by gross scores factors.

This text first appeared on The Texas Tribune.