Fraternizing with the Enemy, my series-long dialog with Cray Allred of the Every day Thunder, continues with the Spurs down 1-2 heading right into a Sunday evening matchup with a ton on the road.
After working out to a 15 level lead, the Spurs had been outscored by 30 factors in about 45 minutes. After the sport there have been a large number of concepts tumbling by my head, and after I awakened I discovered that the tangle of ideas had been kindly organized into a number of discrete simply numerated actions. So I made a decision to make a listing.
J.R. Wilco’s Real looking Dos and Don’ts
Prioritize Fox/Harper/Citadel in PNRs with Wemby
Feed Wemby when he’s near the outlet
Keep on the bottom on SGA fakes
Get the ball to Wemby on the transfer
Depart guys alone on the three level line (until you’re Wemby, and it higher not be Caruso)
Flip the ball over a lot
Simply stand round on the three level line
I name this record real looking as a result of I’ve solely chosen issues that the crew has already demonstrated that it could do in opposition to the Thunder. What do you consider the record and what’s your response to Recreation 3?
That’s a reasonably good record. I’m driving fairly excessive after that win, however I do know that there are a number of of these correctable gadgets that San Antonio coukd very properly repair. After Recreation 2, I used to be ready for an power and momentum swing to spice up the Spurs at house. It clearly did for these first 5 minutes, however I couldn’t consider it evaporated earlier than the second quarter was completed.
I might guess a combination of exhaustion, inexperience, and personnel are accountable for the Spurs falling aside after that 15-0 burst. Fox and Harper may get more healthy. San Antonio can get Wemby shifting to his only. And the house crowd+postseason desperation may put the wind again of their sails.
What I’m much less positive of: whether or not extra disciplined protection on Shai will really sluggish him down. As he did within the first two rounds, he’s mastering essentially the most aggressive and attentive defensive seems because the sequence goes on. San Antonio may lay off extra and foul much less, however that doesn’t imply he gained’t punish them with extra buckets. Give SGA an inch and he’ll take a mile, whether or not that’s room for his jumper, unlawful limbs in his airspace, or freedom for his teammates.
Do you assume the remainder of the sequence might be dictated extra by the bench play, or extra by Shai and Wemby?
Sounds such as you’re saying, “Exhaustion, inexperience and personnel points: women and gents, it’s your 2025-2026 San Antonio Spurs!” and I’m not even all that positive I can disagree — assuming that these personnel points are referring to accidents. Wonderful what taking up the defending champs can do to a crew, isn’t it?
And I’m positive you’re driving excessive, I do know I used to be throughout that 15-0 run. Isn’t it one thing how when a run extends like that it’s arduous to think about your crew ever lacking once more, or the opponent ever making. And vice versa. It’s the identical between video games too. Proper now, even a single win appears inconceivable, however that’s contemplating that solely what has occurred will occur. Since we don’t know what’s being cooked up, we’re left with supposition which leaves issues murky. One factor is evident although, there’s no denying that changes are required.
As to your query, there are two choices. Both San Antonio finds a strategy to make Wemby’s minutes so productive that they’ll climate any run OKC makes when he rests (see above record), or the bench finds a strategy to dangle with the Thunder within the non-Vic minutes. The percentages could also be stacked in opposition to each of these, however I’d say the primary is the probably.
What we’ve seen all yr is Wembanyama experiencing obstacles earlier than shifting ways or adjusting mindset or coordinating with teammates, after which happening an epic run that rewrites historical past books and appears inevitable in hindsight. It’s occurred within the micro (throughout the second half of video games to come back again from enormous deficits) and within the macro (throughout the post-All Star Break when the crew went 37-3 when Wemby performed).
Right here’s my query: how a lot of OKC’s bench play do you assume is sustainable by a whole sequence?
You teed up my favourite wonky Thunder query, which has been my interest horse (or useless horse, perhaps) all yr: whether or not the function gamers can maintain up all through essentially the most essential postseason stretches. OKC has actually underperformed on offense in each their 2024 & 2025 runs, significantly from behind the arc. Till now, they’ve been superb within the common season, and really human throughout the playoffs–succeding regardless of capturing variability relatively than due to it. This season has been their least reliant on three-point capturing as a contender, and I’ve puzzled in the event that they had been leaning into the two-pointer by design or necessity this time round.
My working principle: Shai’s midrange brilliance, and their said premium positioned on absolute shot high quality over the three-pointer as the most suitable choice, has moved their ground and ceiling greater on offense. In previous playoffs, the opposing protection may funnel an increasing number of pictures to Lu Dort and Josh Giddey. With the event of Jaylin Williams and the addition of Jared McCain, the Prince of OKC’s Disney Course of, the vary of gamers able to getting sizzling when the ball is compelled out of Shai’s palms has expanded considerably. Thus far, a minimum of. I do know that the Thunder function gamers will keep elite effort and protection. For the primary time in eternally, I consider they may keep their capturing.
I can really feel the Spurs followers becoming bored, so I’ll transfer on. Now that we all know Ajay Mitchell (out) and Jalen Williams (questionable, however very uncertain in my view) gained’t be round for a minimum of one other sport, OKC’s bench and starters are mixing collectively. The reserves gained’t be scoring 70+ factors once more, however they’ll a minimum of hold the scoring benefit in opposition to the struggling Kornet and Keldon membership.
And to rejoin your different level: Wemby’s capability to rewrite NBA historical past and basketball physics is the true x issue from right here on out for my part. If I had been you, I might love seeing Wemby and Mitch Johnson dismissing free throw & fouling gripes after these losses to focus as a substitute on what they’ll do higher to get again to profitable. NBC confirmed Wemby warming up with trainers pulling and grabbing him within the post–that’s the proper stuff.
If I assumed Fox and Harper had been actually proper, I’d choose SAS to simply even it up in Recreation 4. With the quick relaxation and massive minutes nonetheless crucial for the shortened Spurs rotation, I’m bracing for an additional sport happening to the wire. I gotta stick to my pre-series choose of Thunder in 5 so long as it has legs, however I’m ready to be fallacious.
What’s your choose? And has it modified from what you thought earlier than the sequence?
As quickly as you ask me for my prediction, I instantly assume again to the 2012 Spurs versus Thunder Western Convention Finals after I traveled to Oklahoma Metropolis to stick with my sister’s household and canopy the video games. I used to be however a naïve editor-in-chief then, (solely having taken over PtR in 2012) and had no thought of the heartbreak that was in retailer for me. San Antonio had gained the primary two video games at house and there was no trace in any respect of what was about to befall the Spurs.
They had been dominated. For 4 straight video games Oklahoma Metropolis confirmed that they had been the superior crew. They had been extra bodily they usually scored extra simply than San Antonio. After being up 2-0, there was hardly ever a second within the subsequent 4 video games the place I felt comfy that the Spurs had been in a position to determine the brand new establishment of the sequence.
I spent these 4 video games trusting that Popovich would “determine it out.” After the sequence and over the following summer time I noticed you could’t determine a strategy to play otherwise than you may have all season. There are wrinkles you possibly can put in place and changes that may be made however enjoying fashion is one thing you put together by the course of the season, and might’t be modified on the fly.
These are the ideas that I used to be considering earlier than the sequence after I realized that I merely couldn’t think about San Antonio enjoying otherwise than that they had once they gained three video games in opposition to a mostly-healthy Thunder crew. However now that it’s apparent that the established order of the sequence isn’t the identical because it was in December, my prediction is totally primarily based on Recreation 4.
Often, it’s the odd-numbered video games that outline a playoff sequence within the NBA, however I’m gonna know every little thing I have to find out about the remainder of the sequence within the first 12 minutes of Sunday evening‘s sport. If the Spurs have a special strategy to: a) deal with the physicality, b) include SGA with out permitting function gamers to go off, and c) constantly create offense, then I consider the sequence can go to seven video games and be up for grabs.
But when OKC has a large lead going into the second quarter, then I might anticipate the sequence to be over in 5 – 6 video games. Forcing San Antonio to take the following step of their growth over the low season and the following couple years, simply because the 2012 San Antonio Spurs needed to.
