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The historic stat that predicts a Spurs sequence win

May 19, 2026
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Sport 1 of the 2026 Western Convention Finals between the Spurs and Thunder will go down as one of the crucial epic playoff video games for each the Spurs and NBA — one thing this rivalry has had a knack for producing during the last 15 years. The younger Spurs led more often than not in opposition to the defending champions regardless of no De’Aaron Fox however nonetheless discovered themselves having to beat their very own errors to drag it out in double-overtime.

They have been in a position to take action with a sequence of insanely clutch performs and historic stat strains, all whereas reaching many milestones each in franchise and NBA Playoff historical past, and we’re about to undergo all if them that I might discover (many courtesy of Spurs stat guru Jordan Howenstine). However first, we’ll begin with the one which will matter probably the most when trying on the long-term outlook of this sequence, courtesy of Michael C. Wright of ESPN:

The Spurs are the fifth crew in NBA historical past to win 5 of their first six video games in opposition to the crew that owned the very best file within the NBA that season. The earlier 4 all gained a playoff sequence in opposition to the crew that had the very best file.

In different phrases, no crew has crushed an opponent in 5 of their first 6 match-ups in a season and gone on to lose a playoff sequence to them. In fact, there may be the added quirk of a kind of 5 video games being the NBA Cup Semi-finals, so it’s not just like the Spurs swept the Thunder within the common season or are up 2-0 to begin the sequence, however historical past remains to be on their facet.

Now we transfer on to stat milestones particular to Sport 1. With out Fox, the Spurs trotted out the youngest beginning lineup in Convention Finals historical past, averaging slightly below 23 years outdated. That beat out the Portland Path Blazers 1977 championship crew’s beginning lineup by 279 days.

This was additionally the Spurs’ first highway win in Sport 1 of the Convention Finals since 2005, after they beat the Suns in Phoenix Sport 1. (Everyone knows how that turned out!)

Subsequent up is Victor Wembanyama, who completed with 41 factors on 14-25 capturing, 24 rebounds, 3 assists and three blocks in a career-high 49 minutes of motion. He had already turn into the primary participant since Chris Webber in 2002 to have double-double at halftime in his first ever convention Convention Finals sport with 14 factors and 10 rebounds (and the primary Spur since Tim Duncan in opposition to OKC in 2012), and by the top he was the youngest participant to submit a 40/20 sport in playoffs historical past, surpassing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, in addition to the second Spur after David Robinson.

However it didn’t finish there. He’s additionally the primary participant since Dirk Nowitzki in 2003 to have 25+ factors and 15+ rebounds in his first Convention Finals sport (which was in opposition to the Spurs, and a few could neglect he missed most of that sequence). He was additionally solely the second participant 22 or youthful to submit 30+ and 20+ in playoff sport because the 1976 merger, together with Moses Malone in 1977, and the primary to do it in his first Convention Finals sport since Wilt Chamberlain in 1960.

Then we’ve Dylan Harper, whose rookie star retains shining brighter the deeper we get into the playoffs. He received the beginning with Fox out, posting 24 factors on 8-20 capturing (albeit 0-7 from three), 11 rebounds, 6 assists and seven steals. (And maybe simply as importantly, simply 1 turnover to assist mitigate Stephon Fortress’s 11 on the evening. If Fox sits once more for Sport 2 — which can be a strategic transfer because it’s now not a must-win sport, though I personally take each sport extraordinarily critically — the ball must be in Harper’s arms extra.)

His 7 steals beat out Dejounte Murray, who had 5 in opposition to the Warriors in Sport 4 in 2017, for the Spurs rookie file for a playoff sport. He additionally joined some elite Spurs firm with Alvin Robertson, Avery Johnson, Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard as the one Spurs with 6+ steals in a playoff sport.

On the NBA degree, he turned simply the second rookie to file 20/10/5/5 (steals) in a playoff sport, with the opposite being Magic Johnson, and the primary to submit 20/10/5/7. However it wasn’t only a historic rookie stat line: since steals started being recorded in 1973-74, he joins Larry Chook and Julius Irving as the one gamers to submit that stat line within the playoffs AT ALL!

The Spurs might hardly have requested for a greater begin to the sequence. In fact, nothing is about in stone, and so they should stay centered and never get too excessive or assured whereas working for 3 extra wins as a result of it gained’t be simple. Thunder followers will level to how Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might have been a lot better on offense, and they’d be proper. On the identical time, the Spurs definitely might have been higher themselves (particularly from three, the place they shot simply 13-43), possible gained’t be giving up 21 turnovers once more (particularly if Fox is again), and it will be a stretch to suppose the Thunder get 31 factors and eight threes from Alex Caruso once more, who’s a really erratic shooter.

Regardless, that is simply the beginning of what ought to be a tremendous sequence. Sport 1 has already gone down in Spurs historical past as probably the greatest performances we’ve seen (which is saying so much), however it should solely carry a lot weight into the longer term if the Spurs don’t take this sequence. We will all enjoy it right now, after which tomorrow, it’s again to work.

Make sure that so as to add any extra milestones I could have missed within the feedback beneath! (It’s fairly the rabbit gap to go down and nearly unattainable catch all of them.)



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