It’s a giant day for the Spurs as they kick off their first Western Convention Finals look since 2017, and it’s towards none aside from an outdated rival who has given the Spurs a number of very robust checks of their brief existence within the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder. Going up towards the defending champions with out homecourt benefit and with an unproven roster is daunting, and it’s simple to start out getting nervous if you begin actually crunching the numbers. Nonetheless, I’m selecting to take a look at the this severe from an optimistic view, and right here is the place I’m at:
1. The Spurs beat OKC within the common season by daring average-ish shooters to shoot. This has already been identified, however right here’s a brief abstract of the technique: Wemby utterly abandons Caruso, Dort, and others within the nook to protect the glass. I don’t assume this can be a sustainable strategy- I wouldn’t guess on Caruso to overlook 10 broad open 3s this sequence, a lot much less in a person recreation. I assumed the Wolves can be higher outfitted to use the Spurs use of Wemby zoning down low with Naz Reid, particularly, within the nook. However they by no means actually leaned on that closely sufficient. If we follow that defensive technique, OKC will discover a approach to exploit it. If we don’t have a clear counter, that would result in OKC in 7, both by means of their essential rotation gamers taking pictures higher, or by dropping them from the rotation and taking part in guys like Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, as JG factors out. However the latter has downstream results that I’ll talk about later.
2. Each groups are noticeably improved since they performed within the common season. The Thunder added extra depth and flexibility, and taking pictures, by including McCain and offering an even bigger position to Ajay Mitchell.
In the meantime, the Spurs added extra taking pictures, depth, and flexibility by means of exponential inside development. Even when Fortress is a mean to barely above common shooter, as an alternative of the elite shooter he’s been within the playoffs, that may be a drastic swing within the Spurs favor. Most of our losses got here from each not taking pictures nicely, and never taking pictures sufficient from distance. Fortress, Harper, and Bryant all demonstrating enchancment and confidence is a giant change in our favor (every improved over 10 share factors from January-on).
I give the Spurs a major edge right here, as a result of it means we don’t need to mess with our rotation or our rhythm to get it on the floor- there’s no change in confidence. If there may be foul hassle or an harm, guys like Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet know who they’re and what they will do they usually don’t get impacted by shifts just like the Thunder benching somebody would. If the taking pictures holds up or stays barely above common, the Spurs are nicely outfitted to completely deal with OKC- we’re taking a look at a Spurs in 5 or 6 kind state of affairs like towards the Wolves.
If each of the above are true, that OKC is able to exploiting the Spurs major defensive technique and our counterpunch shall be much less efficient; whereas concurrently we’ve skilled large sustained inside improvement, then I’d predict fireworks and offensive explosions and Spurs in 7, as a result of not sufficient has modified within the Thunder’s favor.
1. Stephon Fortress’s turnovers and fouls. If he’s taking good care of the ball and on the ground, the Spurs win. I’d consider it this manner: “if Fortress has as many assists and made 3s as fouls and turnovers, Spurs win; if he fouls out or has greater than 4-5 turnovers, we lose”.
2. Wemby self-discipline. Whereas JG factors out “the little issues”, I’d level extra particularly to Wemby’s self-discipline. If he’s overaggressive going for blocks, it’s going to open up quite a bit for OKC- excessive variance kind performs that will favor the Thunder. If he doesn’t deal with their physicality and low-cost photographs, it’s a giant win for OKC. If he begins to power issues and turns the ball over or takes dangerous photographs, it’s a giant win for OKC. He must be mentally and bodily ready to be close to good on each ends and keep accessible for 36 minutes per recreation.
3. Can Keldon, Kornet, and Harper get even near successful non-Wemby minutes? The benches shall be large deciding components. The Spurs had a minus 31 internet score in 107 minutes versus OKC in minutes the place Kornet was the one large on the ground. Now, some caveats: Kornet was beginning for a lot of of these minutes, and Wemby was coming off the bench recovering from harm. Wemby hopefully gained’t discover himself on a minutes restriction this sequence, so there ought to be fewer non-Wemby minutes to lose. However we have to lose them by considerably lower than we did through the common season to believe. If Kornet and the bench group can have a impartial internet score, I’d have a variety of confidence the Spurs can win and win large.
Ultimate prediction: Spurs in 6.
I feel Steph will management his turnovers, and I feel he shall be diligent in displaying his fingers and attempting to keep away from fouls on SGA. There shall be a recreation or two that get away in each features. Wemby will power some issues on offense and chase some blocks to overcompensate, and we’ll blow a recreation or two not having sufficient to beat it. However for the opposite 4 video games, Steph continues his leap. We’re disciplined, execute, and get sufficient taking pictures from Steph, Harper, and others to maintain the ground spaced out. Tony dominates Fisher, Wemby dominates Chet.
