Sunday, Could 12 might be a giant day for the Spurs’ rebuild. After one other shedding season, San Antonio will choose extremely within the draft, however the NBA draft lottery will decide their slot. The possibilities of getting the highest choice aren’t nice however nonetheless exist, and the Silver and Black may land a second choose within the high 10 with some luck.
Spurs followers have grow to be extra accustomed to the lottery after a couple of shedding seasons, however it could nonetheless be a bit onerous to know the way it all works. So let’s break it down.
How does the lottery work?
Let’s enable the NBA to elucidate this one:
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 by means of 14 can be positioned in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 potential mixtures when 4 balls are drawn out of 14, with out regard to their order of choice. Earlier than the lottery, 1,000 of these 1,001 mixtures can be assigned to the 14 collaborating lottery groups.(…)
The drawing course of happens within the following method: All 14 balls are positioned within the lottery machine and they’re combined for 20 seconds, after which the primary ball is eliminated. The remaining balls are combined within the lottery machine for an additional 10 seconds, after which the second ball is drawn. There’s a 10-second combine, after which the third ball is drawn. There’s a 10-second combine, after which the fourth ball is drawn. The staff that has been assigned that mixture will obtain the No. 1 choose. The identical course of is repeated with the identical ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second by means of fourth picks.
The method is comparatively easy to know and very onerous to rig, so don’t take note of conspiracy theories.
What are the percentages of the Spurs getting the highest choose? And the way would they get Toronto’s lottery choose?
The more serious a staff’s document is on the finish of the season, the extra mixtures they get within the lottery, which implies the next likelihood on the high picks. The Spurs completed with the fifth-worst document within the league, so meaning their odds of touchdown the highest choose sit at 10.5 %. Right here’s a breakdown of the percentages for each collaborating staff:
Pistons, Wizards and Hornets: 14.0 %
Path Blazers: 12.5 %
Spurs: 10.5 %
Raptors 9.0 %
Grizzlies: 7.5 %
Jazz: 6.0 %
Nets: 4.5 %
Hawks: 3.0 %
Bulls: 2.0 %
Kings: 0.8 %
Warriors: 0.7 %
Bear in mind, the lottery is used for the highest 4 picks, which implies that the Spurs may transfer up even when they don’t get the highest choose and will transfer down if any of the groups under them get fortunate and land on the highest 4.
Now, somebody vaulting previous the Spurs wouldn’t be the worst factor. If that occurs and the staff that strikes up will not be the Raptors, Toronto’s choose would go to San Antonio. The choose, which the Spurs obtained within the Jakob Poeltl commerce, is top-six protected. The Raptors completed with the sixth-worst document within the league so if nobody strikes, they’ll maintain it. But when one of many franchises sitting under them vaults previous them, they’ll lose it.
Briefly, the best-case state of affairs for the Spurs is getting the highest choose by shifting up themselves and the seventh choose by having one of many groups under the Raptors transfer into the highest 4.
What occurs if luck isn’t on the Spurs’ facet on Sunday?
It’s seemingly neither the Spurs nor anybody under the Raptors will transfer up. In that case, San Antonio would go into the 2024 NBA draft with the fifth choose, which isn’t the dream state of affairs however would not be horrible, both. This draft lacks a consensus high choose and there’s some uncertainty within the high 5, so whoever it’s that Brian Wright considers one of the best prospect on this class may fall to San Antonio. Groups above the Spurs may also be prepared to commerce down.
As for the Raptors’ choose, if it doesn’t convey this 12 months, Toronto would nonetheless owe a first-rounder to the Spurs. The choose can be top-six protected for 2 further years earlier than changing into two second-rounders, however the Raptors must be ok subsequent season to combat for a playoff spot and ship their 2025 draft choose to San Antonio. The following class is extra heralded than this one, so getting, say, the 14th choose subsequent 12 months might be comparable worth to getting the seventh this 12 months.
When is the lottery and the way can I watch it?
The 2024 draft lottery will happen on Sunday, Could 12 and the outcomes can be introduced at 2 p.m. CST on ABC.
