In contrast to the stacked West, the NBA’s Jap Convention has been considerably of a disappointment exterior of Boston’s dominance.
The excellent news, although, is that each playoff sequence shall be ultra-competitive exterior of the 1v8 matchup. Armageddon could possibly be coming for a number of groups relying on what occurs, and this ought to be probably the most entertaining Jap Convention first-round in latest reminiscence.
With out additional ado, let’s dive into every matchup.
#1 Celtics vs #8 Warmth
Massive query: Will Miami run Boston off the three-point line?
This can be a mismatch for the ages, particularly on condition that Jimmy Butler appears destined to overlook your complete sequence. Boston ought to dominate, particularly given every group’s respective playstyles.
Within the common season, threes made up 43.7% of the Celtics’ photographs, which was the very best determine league-wide by 2.7%. In the meantime, Miami gave up the third-most quantity of threes at 39.6%, which performs instantly into Boston’s greatest power. The Warmth might want to change their defensive construction so as to keep away from being swept.
Key storyline
Tyler Herro’s offensive burden
Herro is arguably Miami’s greatest scorer, even with Butler within the lineup. With out the latter, although, he’ll must ramp up his utilization much more. Apparently, the Warmth’s offensive ranking with Herro on and Butler off (114.7) was barely higher than their general common season variety of 114.4, however each figures are nonetheless under common and received’t be ok to make Boston sweat.
Prediction: Celtics in 4
Merely put, this would be the most lopsided sequence within the first spherical.
#2 Knicks vs #7 Sixers
Massive query: Can the Sixers include New York on the glass?
Final yr, the largest motive New York beat Cleveland was attributable to their dominant offensive rebounding. That philosophy has carried over to this season, because the Knicks had the very best ORB% within the league at a whopping 32.2%.
Surprisingly, the Sixers had been one of many worst groups in defensive rebounding, as their opponents corralled 28.5% (twenty sixth league-wide) of their very own photographs. Even with Embiid on the ground, opponents nonetheless grabbed 26% of their misses, which is barely higher than the league common of 26.5%. With the reigning MVP nonetheless trying hobbled, New York may replicate final yr’s playoff success if the opposite Sixers don’t step as much as the plate.
Key storylines
Embiid’s defensive positioning
Within the play-in sport towards Miami, Embiid was in a deep drop that allowed shooters resembling Tyler Herro get respectable seems to be. Using the identical technique towards Jalen Brunson could be akin to waving the white flag, as New York’s lead guard shot 49% from the mid-range and 40% from deep this season.
New York’s secondary creation
With Julius Randle out for the season, New York’s total offensive burden has been positioned on the shoulders of Brunson. If Philly throws the kitchen sink at him and slows him down, can different Knicks step as much as the plate? OG Anunoby is a confirmed shooter and Donte DiVincenzo has been elite from deep this yr, however Josh Hart and Isaiah Hartenstein/Mitchell Robinson are full non-shooters of their beginning lineup.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
New York is uniquely positioned to use Philly’s struggles on the glass, which shall be a fair larger downside on condition that Embiid’s nonetheless not 100%. The Knicks’ toughness and grit remind me of Miami’s final yr, and so they have an actual shot of assembly Boston within the Convention Finals.
#3 Bucks vs #6 Pacers
Massive query: What number of threes will the Bucks take and make?
With Giannis sidelined to start the sequence, the Bucks will lean closely on Dame and their perimeter gamers to generate offense. They’re no strangers to enjoying such a mode, both: because the All-Star sport, Milwaukee’s 41.7% photographs taken from three is second solely to Boston, and their 37.2% conversion price is twelfth.
On the opposite finish, the Pacers have conceded the bottom share of opponent photographs from deep at simply 30.1%, and have additionally been lucky that opponents have solely made 35.5% of their makes an attempt (fifth lowest price) over that span.
A trickle-down impact of Milwaukee probably specializing in perimeter scoring could possibly be a scarcity of rim makes an attempt. This additionally favors the Pacers, as they’re lifeless final league-wide because the All-Star break in giving up the very best share of photographs across the basket at 36.2%.
Key storylines
Tempo
Over the ultimate 15 video games of the season, the Pacers performed on the fifth quickest tempo whereas the Bucks had been sixteenth. Given Milwaukee’s ageing roster, they might have hassle maintaining with Indiana, particularly if Giannis misses an prolonged period of time.
Turnovers
For the reason that All-Star break, the Pacers have turned the ball over on simply 11.4% of their possessions, which ranks second throughout that span. In the meantime, the Bucks have been lifeless final in forcing turnovers at 11.8%. That’s by design, however Milwaukee may must gamble extra on protection within the hopes of producing extra scoring attributable to Giannis’ absence.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
The Bucks’ finish to their season couldn’t have been worse, and the truth that Giannis has already been dominated out for the beginning of the sequence doesn’t encourage confidence in a possible return.
#4 Cavs vs #5 Magic
Massive query: Who wins the inside battle?
A rock combat that’ll be harking back to the 90s, this sequence is made for true basketball psychos. Given the scale of each groups, it’s not stunning that Orlando ended the season first within the share of makes an attempt on the rim (38.5%) whereas Cleveland wasn’t far behind at fifth (35.4%), and the 2 sides had been additionally center of the pack in conversion price.
They’ve related defensive profiles, too: each groups are common within the quantity of rim makes an attempt allowed, whereas rating third (Cleveland, 62.8%) and tenth (Orlando, 65.7%), respectively, in opponent taking pictures across the basket.
For 2 entrenched playoff groups, there are additionally a stunning variety of questions relating to their lineups. Particularly, how usually will the Cavs stagger the Mobley-Allen frontcourt? The match stays clunky, however Cleveland’s rim safety continues to be at its greatest once they’re collectively. As for Orlando, what number of minutes will Jonathan Isaac play? He’s arguably one of the best per-minute defensive participant within the league and will push Wendell Carter Jr. to the bench if he continues taking pictures 37.5% from three.
Key storylines
Jalen Suggs vs Donovan Mitchell
After combating an harm in March, Mitchell appeared like himself to shut the common season. With per week off earlier than sport 1, he ought to be near 100%, and Cleveland will want him to get one of the best of Suggs, who is likely to be one of the best perimeter defender within the league.
Paolo Banchero vs Evan Mobley
Just like the Suggs-Mitchell twin, how Mobley defends Paolo shall be a vital x-factor on this sequence. In 4 video games towards Cleveland, Orlando’s star averaged 23 factors on simply 43% taking pictures — and that features a 42-point outburst that noticed him go 16-26 from the sphere.
Prediction: Cavs in 6
Perhaps the basketball gods will punish Cleveland for tanking the season finale by enjoying a bunch of fellows who’re being scouted by the Guangdong Tigers, however the Cavs ought to win this with a wholesome Mitchell.
All stats courtesy of Cleansing the Glass and NBA Stats.
