In April of 2023, the San Antonio Spurs went into the offseason with huge expectations. With a generational prospect getting ready to coming into the NBA, the 22-60 Spurs have been on the mercy of the basketball gods and a rotating container of ping pong balls. It’s practically a miracle (or an act of the universe, as Victor Wembanyama would say,) that San Antonio landed the primary decide.
A 12 months later and issues really feel a lot totally different. With their future celebrity, Wembanyama, in tow, the workforce is tasked with constructing a contender round him. Actually the NBA Draft is a good way for them to do this, however there’s a lot much less stress on touchdown the primary decide than there was final 12 months. Particularly in a comparatively flat 2024 NBA Draft class that doesn’t function a transparent primary prospect.
But the Spurs nonetheless discover themselves ready the place the NBA Draft Lottery issues to them. They personal their very own first rounder, and doubtlessly the Toronto Raptors first-round decide because of the Jakob Poeltl commerce final season. The lottery will resolve whether or not the Spurs get one or two picks, making them as soon as once more some of the fascinating groups to look at on lottery evening.
San Antonio completed the season with the fifth-worst file within the NBA. Their decide has an opportunity to convey anyplace from first to ninth total. Right here is how the p.c possibilities shake out at every place:
10.5%
10.5%
10.6%
10.5%
2.2%
19.6%
26.7%
8.7%
0.6%
Final season, the Portland Path Blazers had the fifth-best odds at touchdown the primary decide, and picked third. In 2022 the Indiana Pacers dropped from 5 to six. In 2021 the Cleveland Cavaliers went from 5 to three. In 2020 the Detroit Pistons dropped from 5 to 7. So the outcomes of this decide are a bit all around the map, however the chance of the Spurs drafting at 5 is pretty slim.
The extra urgent query for the Spurs is whether or not the Raptors decide conveys. It’s top-6 protected, that means if Toronto’s choice is seventh or later, it can go to San Antonio. The Spurs have a 54.1% likelihood of buying the decide, based on the lottery chances. The Raptors have the next chance of choosing at every spot:
9.0%
9.2%
9.4%
9.6%
0%
8.6%
29.8%
20.5
3.7%
0.1%
On Lottery evening, the NBA selects a collection numbers at random that symbolize every workforce. They do that course of to determine which groups will choose picks 1-4. The remainder of the lottery (picks 5-14) go so as, until that’s disrupted by a workforce leaping into the top-4. In that case, the workforce pushed out of the top-4 is bumped down to choose 5 and the remainder of the lottery strikes again a spot. For the Spurs to get the Raptors decide, they want not less than one workforce within the 7-14 vary to leap into the highest 4, pushing the Raptors again to 7.
Final 12 months the Orlando Magic had the sixth greatest odds and stayed at six. In 2022 the Path Blazers dropped from 6 to 7. In 2021 the Golden State Warriors dropped from 6 to 7. In 2020 the New York Knicks fell from 6 to eight. Historical past and the chances favor the Spurs getting this decide, however the lottery is designed to have a touch of randomness to it. If the Raptors decide doesn’t convey in 2024, it will likely be top-6 protected once more in 2025, after which once more in 2026. If the decide doesn’t convey, it turns into two second-rounders conveying in 2026 and 2027.
San Antonio may also have two second spherical picks at thirty fifth total and forty sixth total (courtesy of the Los Angeles Lakers.) If all the pieces shakes out for the Spurs, they’ll have 4 draft picks in 2024. With out many roster spots accessible, that would imply a commerce is an possibility for them.
The Spurs are going through much less stress than final 12 months, however there’ll nonetheless be some sweaty palms on Might twelfth. As PATFO look to construct this roster round Wembanyama, the extra belongings the higher.
