There hasn’t been a playoff collection for the reason that 2018 Western Convention Finals that carries as a lot anticipation because the upcoming Spurs-Thunder conflict, and for good cause. Each groups may upset Adam Silver’s valuable period of parity, and the one factor stopping considered one of them from changing into a dynasty is, properly, the opposite.
OKC has already reached the mountaintop, whereas San Antonio is nipping at their heels. That is the primary matchup of what ought to be the rivalry of a era, and whoever comes out on prime between Wemby and Shai may additionally seize the title as finest on the earth.
So, let’s look at a few of the key battles that may decide the battle.
Rebounding has been OKC’s achilles heel for a number of seasons now, and it may very well be problematic towards the Spurs too. Within the common season, the Thunder’s 25.1% offensive rebounding price ranked twenty fifth within the league, whereas their 71% DREB was sixteenth. In the meantime, the Spurs positioned ninth (29.5%), and 1st (74.1%), respectively, in these classes, which performed out of their common season matchup, too: San Antonio scored 13 extra second probability factors in these video games (+2.6 common).
Total, the Spurs grabbed 12 extra OREBs and 4 extra DREBs throughout these 5 matches. It’s price noting that these numbers are fattened by their fifth and remaining sport, when the Thunder rested all their stars, and OKC has additionally been significantly better within the playoffs, with a 32.3% OREB in comparison with San Antonio’s 28.4%. Alternatively, the Spurs’ playoff opponents had way more succesful frontcourts than what the Thunder confronted, and the common season’s bigger pattern ought to be extra indicative of each workforce’s types.
In such an in depth collection, San Antonio must win on the margins, and which means dominating OKC on the glass.
For as a lot hootin’ and hollerin’ there may be round Shai’s foul grifting, he’s nonetheless only one participant. Even along with his prowess attending to the road, the Thunder had been “simply” ninth league-wide in free throw price, at 21.8% — simply barely behind the Spurs, who had been at 21.9%. These two groups are neck and neck on the opposite finish, too, as San Antonio was 1st in defensive free throw price (17.9%) whereas OKC was second (18.3%), and none of these numbers have modified a lot within the playoffs. Within the 4 common season matchups when each Wemby and Shai performed, the Spurs shot 15 extra FTs than the Thunder did, although the massive discrepancy is skewed by an outlier sport that noticed San Antonio have 17 extra makes an attempt in a single night time.
This will likely be a battle of strengths on either side of the ball, and I’m totally right here for the poisonous discourse that may inevitably observe.
Wemby is a strolling mismatch for each workforce within the league, nevertheless it was most pronounce towards the Thunder as a result of stage of competitors he dominated. Of their common season collection, OKC had an abysmal 99.6 offensive ranking with Wemby enjoying, which was largely brought on by their photographs (or lack thereof) on the basket: the Thunder solely tried 25.3% of their photographs across the rim, which might’ve ranked twenty ninth league-wide and was 6% decrease than their full season common (31.3%). They’d no reply to Wemby defensively, as he was at all times capable of roam the paint by both matching up towards a non-spacing large (Hartenstein), or sagging off of a guard who struggles to shoot (like Caruso, who went 2-12 from three in a single sport).
It’s a excessive threat, excessive reward technique since Caruso (and different Thunder guards) has proven the power to get scorching from deep, however the Spurs have counters to that as properly. Within the Minnesota collection, the Wolves pressured Wemby to protect Terrance Shannon Jr. at occasions within the corners, however the Alien recovers so quick that he’s capable of get again within the paint with out giving the opposition a bonus, and that’s additionally aided by San Antonio’s impeccable defensive rotations beside him.
Shai hasn’t handed the Wemby take a look at, both. The Alien permits the Spurs’ perimeter defenders (particularly Stephon Citadel) to protect the MVP aggressively: in the event that they get beat off the dribble, they know that Wemby’s behind them to offer assist, and due to this, Wemby’s presence has detered Shai from driving, forcing him to take troublesome photographs as a substitute.
The one factor OKC can strive is utilizing Gortat screens to forestall Wemby from getting in place to contest photographs. Minnesota did it a number of occasions within the first few video games to some success, and the Thunder have higher personnel to make it a extra constant technique. It gained’t work everytime, but when OKC executes it correctly, some key possessions may very well be swung of their favor.
Offensively, Wemby renders one of many Thunder’s strengths moot. San Antonio made an absurd 70.5% of their makes an attempt on the rim, which is over 10% increased than what OKC usually concedes in that space (60.2%, first within the common season). Having a 7’5” alien as a lob risk definitely helps, however Wemby’s influence goes far past that. His gravity creates open driving lanes for San Antonio’s guards, or cuts that they will make for broad open finishes, like the instance under.
Within the common season video games, the Thunder used a smaller guard/wing on Wemby, permitting iHart or Chet to roam and supply backline assist. This was largely ineffective on account of Wemby’s capturing potential, his gravity, and the Spurs off-ball motion, so OKC tried enjoying Chet straight towards him as a substitute. Properly, that didn’t even final a half, and OKC appeared misplaced throughout the entire Wemby minutes.
Nonetheless, Mark Daigneault has had over three months to gameplan towards the Alien. He’ll have moree methods up his sleeve now, and there’s nonetheless a wrinkle that was barely employed within the common season: utilizing considered one of Chet/iHart towards Wemby whereas the opposite one acts as a roamer by sagging off of Citadel. It’s a threat provided that the latter is capturing 44% from three within the playoffs and has handled this kind of protection earlier than, however neither Citadel nor Wemby has skilled it towards an all-time nice protection that has had months to organize for this particular matchup.
If anybody can discover a bonus over Wemby and the Spurs, it could be this OKC squad.
X-Issue: Spurs’ 3-point quantity vs Thunder’s factors off turnovers
As was outlined by Jeje within the collection preview, the Spurs allowed a lot fewer turnovers towards OKC in comparison with the Thunder’s season common, and that resulted in San Antonio scoring extra factors off TOs than OKC did. Basically, the Spurs turned off the Thunder’s superpower, which was brought on by a number of elements. One, OKC’s perimeter defenders weren’t hounding San Antonio’s guards as a lot as they often do, as a substitute giving them extra space. It is because the Spurs’ guards are the one ones within the league that may match the Thunder backcourt’s physicality and athleticism, so San Antonio may play bully ball and drive previous the protection in the event that they had been pressed too onerous. OKC additionally needed to swarm Wemby extra, and with not one of the Spurs guards being elite shooters, the Thunder had been comfy giving them extra space to function on the perimeter.
Clearly, the downside to that’s the lack of turnovers created. Given the dearth of success that this scheme had within the common season, I anticipate OKC to return to their typical aggressive protection, however that might lead to extra defensive rotations that opens up threes for his or her opponents. The Thunder have efficiently lived with this trade-off for a number of seasons now, ending tied for first in turnovers pressured this previous season (16.8%) but additionally conceding the sixth most threes (40.4% of opponent photographs got here from past the arc) and essentially the most corners threes, too (12.4%). That latter quantity is particularly vital as a result of the Spurs generated essentially the most nook threes (12.9%) within the common season, which elevated to 13.8% with Wemby on the ground — one of many highest figures ever.
In different phrases, the Thunder can both play conservatively on protection and threat shedding the turnover battle once more, or they will return to their typical scheme and dwell with the Spurs capturing threes. This will likely be an important stylistic battle to observe, and whoever comes out on prime can have an enormous benefit within the collection.
