With the Spurs vs. Blazers sequence formally set, it’s time for us to undergo what every staff brings to the desk. At present, we’ll begin with a fast overview of some stylistic quirks to watch, earlier than releasing a full preview within the coming days.
First up: the turnover battle.
These groups are polar opposites within the turnover recreation. San Antonio is nice at defending the ball on offense (12.9% turnover charge, 4th greatest) however struggles to steal the rock on protection (forces turnovers on 12.8% of defensive possessions, twenty eighth), whereas Portland loves coughing up the ball (16.8% turnover charge, thirtieth) however can also be excellent at taking it away from opponents (forces turnovers on 15.3% of defensive possessions, seventh). In different phrases, it’ll be a battle of weaknesses on the Spurs finish, but additionally a conflict of strengths on the Blazers’ aspect.
With that mentioned, particular person matchups may also matter, and Steph Citadel could possibly be an X-factor on each ends of the courtroom. Citadel averages over a steal per recreation and can seemingly spend plenty of time guarding Avdija, who has each the best utilization and turnover charge (15.1%) on the Blazers. Alternatively, Citadel himself may be very turnover-prone (15.9%), which might play into the fingers of Portland’s trifecta of elite perimeter defenders in Vacation, Camara, and Thybulle.
Portland’s rim frequency
Portland prioritizes photographs close to the rim, as 35.2% of their makes an attempt come inside 4 ft of the basket (fifth highest league-wide). Fortunately, the Spurs have maybe the best rim protector in league historical past in Wemby, whose presence alone deters opponents from capturing. The truth is, solely 26.2% of opposing photographs come on the basket when he performs, and it’ll be fascinating to see if the Blazers see the same drop in rim frequency.
Even when they determine to maintain capturing, don’t anticipate many to go in. The Blazers are solely making 66.3% of their photographs in that space (18th league-wide), and with Wemby on the courtroom, the Spurs are letting in simply 60.8% of these makes an attempt. If Portland struggles down low, they may pivot to capturing extra threes, as they’re already high 5 in three-point frequency (43.2%) whereas San Antonio provides up a mean variety of makes an attempt (37.8%, 14th league-wide).
Portland’s choose & roll frequency
A method of pulling Wemby away from the rim could be placing him in as many excessive pick-and-rolls as attainable, and Portland’s 17.1% P&R frequency ranks within the league’s high 10. Nevertheless, the Alien is such a bodily freak that he’s quick and lengthy sufficient to include each the ballhandler earlier than recovering to the roll man. Consequently, the Spurs really welcome P&Rs, permitting 16.9% of defensive possessions to contain such a play from opposing groups, whereas conceding simply 0.83 factors per possession — the third-lowest quantity league-wide, and likewise the identical scoring common for Portland on offense. In different phrases, the Blazers may have a particularly tough time going towards Wemby in P&Rs, and it’ll be fascinating to see how they modify.
One other method for Portland to generate offense is to crash the offensive glass. The Blazers’ 34.3% ORB proportion was 4th league-wide, however that’s going up towards the #1-ranked defensive rebounding Spurs staff that grabbed 74.1% of its personal boards. Anticipate Clingan and Robert Williams III to get bodily with Wemby and trigger as a lot havoc across the Spurs’ rim as attainable, particularly if they’ve bother producing different types of offense.
Nevertheless, San Antonio may additionally counter by doing the identical on the opposite finish. The Spurs are additionally offensive rebounding staff, grabbing 29.5% of their misses (ninth highest). Apparently, Portland really struggles on their very own glass, conceding 70.2% of rebounds to their opponents (twenty first). If the Blazers don’t handle to wash up on their very own finish, then any offensive rebounds they seize can be rendered moot.
San Antonio’s nook three-point quantity
The Spurs’ 38.8% three-point quantity is common (14th league-wide), however they’re tied for first with New York in nook three quantity at 12.9%. That is largely attributed to Wemby’s insane roll gravity, as San Antonio generates 13.8% of their photographs from the corners when he performs, which is the best in league historical past. The Blazers enable 10.2% of opponent photographs to return from these spots, (proper across the league common), but when they prioritize defending the corners, then it’ll open up Wemby’s rolls and drives from the Spurs’ guards. San Antonio can also be capturing 71.3% on the rim (ninetieth percentile) on 36.4% frequency (87th), so Portland is caught between a rock and a tough place.
16.5% of Spurs performs are available transition (sixth league-wide), and their offensive score on such performs is 128.5 (eighth). The Blazers enable virtually the identical quantity of transition alternatives on protection (16.4%, twenty sixth) with a defensive score of 126.8 (nineteenth). San Antonio ought to dominate in fast-break factors, particularly since they’re additionally elite at stopping opposing transition alternatives, whereas Portland is backside 5 in transition frequency. This could possibly be a brief sequence if the Blazers flip the ball over at their normal charge.
