On February twentieth, I wrote a fan publish through which I launched a metric known as the Common 4 Issue Index (aFFI). I received’t present a full primer on the index right here ( readers can discover one within the unique fan publish by clicking right here), however the TLDR clarification is that the aFFI is designed to evaluate a workforce’s common efficiency throughout an outlined interval (e.g., the season so far, the latest X-game interval, and many others.) based mostly on the team-opponent differentials it has achieved with respect to Dean Oliver’s 4 Elements of Basketball Success: efficient discipline aim proportion (EFG%), turnover proportion (TOV%), offensive rebounding proportion (ORB%), and the ratio of free throws made to discipline objectives tried (FTM/FGA). As a result of aFFI focuses on team-opponent differentials, I add a delta image in entrance of every time period (i.e., ∆EFG%, ∆TOV%, ∆ORB%, ∆FTM/FGA).
On the time of the unique publish, San Antonio was 38-16 and had the the third highest season-long aFFI worth (56.98). Since then, the Spurs have added 16 extra wins and simply two losses, pushing their season-long aFFI to 57.87, which is firmly forward of third-ranked Detroit, albeit nonetheless notably behind OKC. A full 30-team checklist of season-long aFFI values and the underlying differential percentiles behind them (based mostly on video games performed by way of March twenty fourth) is offered in Determine 1 above.
In fact, particularly this near the playoffs, aFFI values based mostly on all the season so far can considerably misrepresent the outlook of a workforce. To get at that, we will slim our reference interval to solely seize efficiency throughout a newer interval of video games. Precisely the right way to outline this window is debatable, however in apply I’ve discovered that the latest 20-game window strikes a pleasant steadiness between capturing related efficiency and retaining sufficient pattern dimension to stop singular occasions (e.g., a very good or dangerous recreation) from distorting the outcomes. A set of workforce rankings based mostly on 20-game aFFI values by way of March twenty fourth are offered in Determine 2 under.
As measured by its most up-to-date 20-game window, San Antonio has been far and away the most effective workforce within the league based on aFFI, with an almost three-point lead over second place. Fairly irritatingly (for draft causes), Atlanta sits in that second-place spot, although OKC and the Knicks are inside just a few tenths of a degree. In evaluating Figures 1 and a pair of, it’s clear that some groups are surging (e.g., Atlanta), whereas others are presently stumbling to the end line (e.g., Denver, Minnesota). In fact, these rankings need to be interpreted with warning and don’t account for vital particulars like participant accidents; nonetheless, with about 10 video games left to go within the season, I are inclined to lean on this 20-game aFFI worth to evaluate the contender standing of playoff-bound groups.
Put merely, the proof above means that the Spurs have been wonderful all yr and are the strongest workforce within the league heading into the postseason. Nonetheless, a historic level of reference can be helpful to higher perceive simply how good this present iteration of the Spurs is. For that, I’ll echo the beforehand talked about fan publish and examine the 2025-2026 Spurs to the 2013-2014 championship workforce based on the evolution of every workforce’s 20-game aFFI worth over the course of the season.
After I first made this comparability over a month in the past, I famous {that a} defining characteristic of the 2013-2014 championship squad was their beautiful run in the direction of the tip of the season, which included a 19-game win streak that pushed their 20-game aFFI from close to league common to over 63 by recreation 75 of the season. At the moment, I famous that this season’s workforce was going to want an analogous run to achieve the heights of the 2013-2014 Spurs, and low and behold they’ve accomplished precisely that. With 10 video games left earlier than the postseason, at the moment’s Spurs are exhibiting a degree of play that rivals the final Spurs champions at their regular-season greatest.
Does this imply we should always view the present workforce as having the identical championship odds that the 2013-2014 Spurs had? When it comes to common season statistical efficiency, I’d say “sure” with out hesitation; nonetheless, I’ll be the primary to confess that stats aren’t the one issue at play right here. Specifically, the 2013-2014 squad had a long time of collective playoff expertise, together with a three-person core of corridor of famers who had performed collectively in each postseason courting again to 2002-2003 and received three championships collectively. Past that, they had been a workforce hell-bent on redemption after their intestine wrenching loss to Miami within the 2013 finals.
In distinction, the present Spurs are rife with playoff neophytes who’ve by no means been examined in a seven-game sequence, together with each member of its beginning core outdoors of De’Aaron Fox (who has logged a complete of simply seven playoff video games), plus some function participant championship expertise from Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet. Historical past strongly means that this lack of expertise will damage San Antonio come playoff time, and it’s exhausting to disregard that benchmark when making an attempt to develop goal expectations. Nonetheless, a counterargument is that this workforce is led by a traditionally unprecedented participant who seems to haven’t any qualms about redefining what’s potential. I can’t quantify the worth of that, however I can inform you that it has essentially formed what I believe this workforce can obtain.
