Whoever thinks that grown males are above high-school stage drama don’t observe the NBA.
This season, we’ve already seen a celebrity get punched (reportedly) for making enjoyable of an opponent’s contract blunder, and a really mid participant demand(!!!) a commerce out of what he believes to be a “hostage” scenario. One way or the other, neither of these tales takes the cake, since an all-time nice is now dragging out an inevitable divorce as a result of he doesn’t have the cojones to appear to be the dangerous man.
What makes it sillier is that Giannis had a teammate in Dame who went by means of this precise saga, which resulted in them teaming up. You’d assume he would possibly’ve discovered a factor or two from that, however as a substitute, he’s copying Dame’s playbook to the tee.
With the commerce deadline quick approaching and the Bucks hitting all-time low, there’s no higher time to have a look at what they may do with their seemingly disgruntled celebrity.
First, we have to map out the whole lot that’s led up up to now.
Rumours a few potential Giannis departure have gone on for for much longer than 6 months, however let’s concentrate on this season for the sake of sanity.
Obtained all that? Good, as a result of we’re simply getting began.
What can Milwaukee do on the deadline?
Regardless of the Bucks’ struggles, Eric Nehm has constantly reported (paywall) that Milwaukee solely has intentions of shopping for on the deadline. That sounds ludicrous from the skin, however in the event you’re a part of a entrance workplace in a small market that by no means attracts any free brokers, it’s comprehensible to attempt to preserve Giannis in any respect prices — particularly contemplating that Milwaukee is +5.4 per 100 possessions with him on the court docket, which might be the sixth finest mark league-wide.
The counterargument? Nicely, they’re -11.2 when he sits, tying the Wizards for the worst mark within the league, and the Bucks have performed extra minutes with out Giannis this season as a consequence of his recurring calf accidents. From an unbiased perspective, it makes completely no sense to purchase. First, as a consequence of their lack of property and monetary constraints, the one gamers they may purchase are closely distressed property like a Zach LaVine or Ja Morant – gamers who frankly aren’t superb. Secondly, even when they do make such strikes, it’s been years since Giannis has strung collectively two months of well being, so why would anybody count on him to final by means of a complete playoff run?
How does the draft issue into this?
The largest X-factor in all that is the upcoming draft. Milwaukee nonetheless owns the “dangerous” finish of their very own 2026 choose swap between themselves and the Pelicans, with Atlanta proudly owning the higher half of that swap. In different phrases, the Bucks would have the decrease draft place between the 2 picks, and provided that New Orleans is already on the backside of the league, Milwaukee may assure that each picks would have excessive lottery odds in the event that they pull the plug on this season.
If it hasn’t dawned on you but, there’s a chance that the Hawks (by way of the Pelicans) and Bucks get the first and 2nd picks of the upcoming draft, thus giving Milwaukee the #2 total choice.
So what level is there in having Giannis return this season? Milwaukee is already 3 video games out of the play-in, sitting twenty second within the total league standings and only a half sport forward of the red-hot Hornets. There’s a 4-game hole between them and the Twenty fifth-ranked Jazz, and one other 4-game distinction between the Jazz and the last-place Wizards. It would seem to be an enormous hill to climb, however I don’t doubt Milwaukee’s capability to hitch that group when their .214 successful proportion with out Giannis is worse than Washington’s — and that’s with them making an attempt to win!
It makes far more sense for them to tank and get the best choose attainable. The possibility to get one in all Dybantsa/Boozer/Peterson is simply too arduous to cross up, even when the percentages of that occuring are minuscule. Think about if Milwaukee does find yourself with a kind of prospects whereas additionally managing to commerce for a reclamation mission like Ja — a package deal involving Rollins and/or a evenly protected 2031/32 choose could be greater than sufficient for any distressed asset, and I’d be mendacity if I stated {that a} lineup together with Ja/Giannis/Turner/lottery choose doesn’t intrigue me.
Once more, I’m not advising them to do this, however this franchise has made numerous desperation strikes as a last-ditch try to appease their star, they usually’ve acquired criminals once-relevant gamers earlier than. Even including a mid-lottery expertise may give the Bucks both an intriguing participant to construct round or use as a commerce chip to amass one other star, which is the likeliest final result.
Atlanta’s choose may play an enormous position on this as properly. Would they be prepared to incorporate it in a possible package deal for Giannis, even when it leads to the top-3? And if Milwaukee will get a excessive choose too, would they be extra prepared to deal the Greek Freak now that they’ve two potential cornerstone prospects to construct round? Once more, the probabilities of that occuring are near nil, however I’ve discovered to by no means rule out something after watching Dallas commerce Luka and draft Cooper inside the span of 5 months.
A Giannis commerce nonetheless appears inevitable. Even within the off probability that Milwaukee acquires an excellent starter together with a excessive choose, we’ve seen numerous instances that the 2 timelines “plan” simply doesn’t work (see: Mavericks, Dallas, and Warriors, Golden State). Don’t count on him to be moved earlier than the deadline, although, as a consequence of his damage and lack of a commerce demand, however a divorce appears sure within the offseason. Nonetheless, one other wrinkle on this convoluted saga is that Giannis can’t formally be provided an extension till October, and if either side proceed this situationship, it may drag out till the final minute.
So, prepare for a lot of extra months of this, peeps. The noise will solely intensify from right here.
This week, please try Marilyn’s article on the Spurs’ latest complacency! San Antonio’s been in a lull ever since they beat OKC 3 instances in 10 days, which is particularly disappointing for a younger workforce that hasn’t achieved something but.
All stats courtesy of Cleansing the Glass and NBA Stats.
