The Spurs’ two-season streak of Rookie of the 12 months winners might finish in 2025-26, however it’s unwise to ignore a participant in the summertime. They may present up higher than marketed, and a tragic actuality is that accidents occur, altering paths and award races.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Dylan Harper on the third-highest odds for the Rookie of the 12 months crown at +1,000. DraftKings has him second at +900, and Caesars has him fourth at +1,000. These are honest odds contemplating Harper will presumably be a pivotal bench piece, and the Mavericks’ high general decide, Cooper Flagg, seems like a game-changing stud who will most likely begin.
However what might Harper do to be a critical challenger with out beginning? Don’t neglect, LaMelo Ball (31) and Malcolm Brogdon (28) are the one two ROTY winners to document begins in lower than half the season. The latter gained as a result of Joel Embiid harm his left knee, lacking the remainder of the season after his thirty first recreation.
The final 25 Rookie of the 12 months winners have averaged 33.6 minutes per recreation. The one ones in that span to win enjoying beneath half-hour had been Stephon Fort (26.7), Victor Wembanyama (29.7), Ball (28.8), Brogdon (26.4) and Mike Miller (29.1).
Traditionally, scoring is the highest measuring stick for figuring out a winner. Of all those that have earned it, solely 14 since 1947-48 bought it, averaging beneath 15 factors per recreation. Fort was the final of the 14, and he took benefit of the chance to begin when Wembanyama (blood clot) then Fox (left pinkie surgical procedure) had been dominated out for the season. Moreover, Fort averaged 30.8 minutes per recreation from March 14 till the final night time of the yr, however recorded 25.5 minutes per recreation from the season opener till March 12.
The competitors is stiffer this yr, and Harper is a good prospect however not a generational expertise. He would wish to common round a minimal of half-hour per recreation and never let the offense disintegrate when De’Aaron Fox rests. One of many large components that can form his candidacy is the lineups he’s utilized in. Vital enjoying time as lead with Victor Wembanyama on the courtroom would make his job a lot simpler and provides him an excellent pick-and-roll associate. On this state of affairs, there is no such thing as a doubt he might simply have 4 assists per recreation, feeding the large man as a result of he’s like a large receiver, who’s at all times open.
One other factor wanted is hitting 3-pointers at an above-average clip. The extra he does, the nearer he can be performed, permitting him to make use of his maneuverability to get by on a drive. Regardless of a below-average 3-point effectivity at Rutgers, Harper has good type on his launch and shouldn’t be dared with house in drop protection. Taking part in subsequent to Luke Kornet might assist him elevate on this space due to the great screening and offensive rebounding. Top-of-the-line instances to pop a 3 is on a re-evaluation, and Kornet, was second in offensive rebounding share for all backup gamers in 2024-25 who performed a minimal of 55 video games.
The opposite talent that will must be sharp for him to be within the race is transferring off the ball effectively when enjoying subsequent to Fox. Factors can be there for him if he cuts into the house given to him when the protection helps on Fox’s dribble.
The final can be ball safety. Since he performs for an up-and-coming staff, he gained’t have as a lot leeway to make errors. But, his below-par assist-to-turnover numbers (1.67) at college ought to enhance with time, being subsequent to reliable weapons.
The opposite early prospects of the sphere are additionally affected considerably as a result of they don’t seem to be anticipated to begin. They embrace V.J. Edgecombe, whose alternative might skyrocket, relying on Embiid (arthroscopic knee surgical procedure in April) and Paul George’s (offseason arthroscopic knee surgical procedure) well being in Philadelphia and a must fill minutes; Tre Johnson, one other pure scorer for the Wizards; and Kon Knueppel, who could have loads of utilization off the bench in Charlotte as a creating do-it-all wing.
Accounting for Harper’s expertise, it’s onerous to not see him make one of many spots on the All-Rookie staff.
