It’s a story as outdated as time: the pesky underdog seeking to upset the closely favored Goliath, whom many have already topped champ.
The Pacers can do exactly that by pulling off an unbelievable victory, however standing of their approach is a 68-win juggernaut with a seemingly impenetrable protection. OKC appears to be like unbeatable proper now, however greater upsets have taken place these playoffs — a lot of which have been orchestrated by Indiana themselves.
So, can Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers proceed to defy the percentages, or will Shai lead the Thunder to a title that appears inevitable?
Let’s discover out.
Be aware: all stats replicate the playoff until in any other case acknowledged.
Key storylines
Turnovers
In some ways, these groups are two sides of the identical coin, because the Thunder and Pacers are each elite at creating and limiting turnovers.
Beginning with OKC, it’s frequent data that their means to create turnovers is among the traits that makes them so deadly. The Thunder have compelled their opponents to surrender the ball on a ridiculous 18% of their possessions, rating first within the playoffs and practically a complete share level greater than their historic 17.1% common season mark.
The Pacers, although, might be the right foil to the Thunder’s ball-snatching methods. Regardless of averaging the second most passes per sport (314.3), Indiana has turned the ball over on simply 12.5% of their possession (4th lowest).
The methods during which these golf equipment drive TOs additionally matter. The Thunder can do it in each approach possible, be it leaping passing lanes, sending doubles, or just snatching the ball away when an opponent dribbles of their neighborhood.
Even with the Pacers’ low TO price, OKC’s protection may show to be Indiana’s (and everybody’s) kryptonite, because the Pacers’ need to push the ball up the courtroom may play proper into the Thunder’s palms — particularly in the event that they’re as sloppy as proven within the performs under.
On the opposite facet, Indiana’s 14.5% TO creation can also be seventh highest, however they’ll be challenged by an OKC crew whose 11.1% TO price is the bottom amongst all playoff groups. Contemplating each the numbers and eye take a look at, I’m much less assured in Indiana’s means to steal the ball from the Thunder: the Pacers’ highest utilization gamers are merely common to barely above common in steal price, whereas OKC’s three highest utilization gamers are elite at limiting turnovers (Shai, JDub, and Chet all have TO charges below 10%, rating within the ninetieth percentile).
Furthermore, the Pacers’ highest TO gamers embody Nembhard (13.7%), Turner (13.4%), and Mathurin (12.5%), who’re all averaging over 28 minutes a sport for Indiana. If these three show to be liabilities in opposition to the Thunders’ historic protection, the Pacers might be compelled out of enjoying the frenetic type that’s made them so harmful.
In the meantime, Hartenstein is the one vital participant in OKC’s lineup who has a excessive TO price (15.4%), and his function is perhaps lowered anyway as a result of different matchup considerations we’ll contact on later.
In brief, the Thunder have a significantly better probability of slowing Indiana down and limiting their potent pace than vice versa. The Pacers will nonetheless drive their fair proportion of TOs, however asking them to maintain up with OKC is a complete different stage — particularly because the Thunder’s offense doesn’t contain a lot ball motion and Shai has one of many lowest turnover charges within the league.
Transition
The similarities of each groups are additionally noticeable in transition.
OKC runs on 15.6% (2nd) of their possessions and has a ridiculous 142.0 offensive ranking (1st) on such performs, whereas Indiana sports activities a 13.8% frequency (fifth) with a 138.5 ORTG (third). Defensively, these groups are 2nd (11.0%, Thunder), and 4th (11.8%, Pacers), respectively, in limiting transition frequency, whereas additionally sustaining an elite defensive ranking of 114.5 (4th, Thunder) and… 97.0 (1st, Pacers).
That latter quantity is unsustainable for Indiana, however OKC’s transition protection is legit. The Thunder performed a good higher transition crew within the Grizzlies in spherical one and utterly prevented them from operating. Memphis’ 17.2% transition frequency within the common season ranked second league-wide, however that dropped to simply 11.9% of their four-game sweep, which might’ve been final within the league by a large margin.
Numbers apart, these groups create transition possibilities in several methods. Thunder rely most on turnovers, whereas the Pacers prioritize getting previous half-court whatever the scenario. Indiana’s first intuition is to throw the ball forward and create a mismatch earlier than the opposing protection can get set, regardless of if that’s after a make, a rebound, or a steal.
On the opposite finish, each groups prioritize operating again after dropping possession to arrange their protection. Neither facet cares a lot for grabbing offensive rebounds as they’re each ranked within the backside half in OREB%, which is a brilliant technique since each groups rating at will when the opposition is left behind crashing the boards.
Nonetheless, it’s inevitable that these groups can be caught in cross-matches as a result of tempo they play at. How usually that occurs may decide the result of the collection, which brings us to…
Matchups
Indiana’s offense vs OKC’s protection
Indiana’s relentlessness on offense will drive OKC to make heavy changes to their rotation. For starters, I anticipate Hartenstein to have a lowered function within the finals. The Pacers hunted him relentlessly final 12 months when he performed in New York, and iHart doesn’t have the footspeed to maintain up with Indiana’s guards. On condition that the Pacers are additionally a poor rebounding crew with just one dependable huge in Myles Turner, anticipate OKC to play Chet heavy minutes alone. This may even mitigate the Thunder’s turnovers since iHart has the best TO price amongst gamers of their rotation.
In his stead, OKC may begin Cason Wallace or Alex Caruso, relying on the matchups. What’s attention-grabbing on this facet of the ball is that there is no such thing as a matchup certainty aside from Dort to be assigned to Haliburton. Of their most up-to-date common season sport, Shai guarded Nembhard, Wallace guarded Nesmith, Hartenstein guarded Siakam (since Chet was injured), and JDub guarded Turner. The Thunder can have no downside switching given their versatility, though they’d wish to hold Chet and Shai out of the first motion.
Specifically, the defensive assignments of that duo might be a bellwether for the Thunder. In Chet’s case, if OKC decides to play him straight up in opposition to Turner, they danger having him change on to Haliburton, and the drop protection the Thunder’s bigs normally play may lead to him giving up open threes.
OKC may strive placing Chet on a traditionally below-average shooter in Nembhard, thus liberating him as much as roam within the paint. This might additionally permit one among Caruso/Wallace to be on Turner in order that the Thunder may change a Hali-Turner choose and roll with out giving up a mismatch. Nonetheless, Nembhard appears to be a Playoff Jimmy disciple as a result of his means to out of the blue grow to be a sharpshooter within the postseason, as he’s making 50% of his threes throughout this run.
Capturing apart, the Pacers are greater than snug having Nembhard provoke offense as properly, so Chet will nonetheless be compelled to protect on the perimeter. To mitigate this problem, OKC may elect to place him on Siakam as an alternative, who operates within the paint greater than any non-big Pacer and will hold Chet nearer to the basket. Nonetheless, a easy Siakam-Haliburton choose and roll would drive him again out on the perimeter, and Indiana’s means to subject a full lineup of gamers who can all dribble, cross, and shoot is what makes them so onerous to defend.
For Shai, having him guard both Nembhard or Nesmith are the one viable choices, and the well being of the latter might be the deciding issue on this resolution. If he’s 100%, Nesmith’s pace and off-ball chopping is perhaps an excessive amount of for Shai, however a banged-up model of him may give the MVP a spot to considerably relaxation on protection. If OKC opts to have him on Nembhard, anticipate the Pacers to run extra offense by the two-guard to tire out Shai and assault the so-called “weak hyperlink” within the Thunder’s protection.
One other attention-grabbing wrinkle on this collection is the stylistic variations between the 2 groups, a few of which closely favor one facet. For instance, the Thunder prioritizes rim safety by limiting drives from opposing groups — OKC collapses into the paint when gamers assault the basket, and consequently, solely 27.4% of photographs (fifth fewest) from opponents have come inside 4 toes of the Thunder’s rim. Nonetheless, because of this they permit numerous threes, particularly from the nook: 40.3% (third most) of opponent photographs have come from deep, and 13.5% (2nd most) from the corners.
If Mark Daigneault chooses to not change their defensive scheme, Indiana may have a scab to choose at. The Pacers are capturing 41.7% from three (1st) and 47.5% from the corners (2nd), however they’re solely trying 35.3% of their photographs from deep (14th).
Contemplating all the things, the Pacers’ greatest probability of constantly scoring on OKC is by concentrating on Shai and Chet and kicking the ball out to their shooters. It’s not a foolproof technique, however there aren’t many higher choices in opposition to a traditionally nice protection.
OKC’s offense vs Indiana’s protection
For the Thunder, all the things begins and ends with Shai. Nembhard will draw that task, whereas Nesmith takes JDub and Turner performs straight up in opposition to Chet. This enables Siakam and Haliburton to cover on Dort and Caruso/Wallace whereas additionally permitting the previous to be a roamer on the again line — a job that he excels at.
For Indiana, their complete scheme must be geared towards slowing down Shai. He’ll hunt Turner relentlessly, and the Pacers can’t quit straightforward switches until they need heaps of BBQ hen to be served.
The Thunder’s offense is nowhere close to as revolutionary as Indiana’s, however they’re nonetheless able to executing a number of actions to get the matchup they’d like. For instance, the clip under exhibits OKC operating a double drag to get Shai attacking Gobert downhill, leading to a simple pull-up middy.
Even when his defender will get across the display, Shai can nonetheless get to his spot within the half-second it takes his defender to get better. Then, the MVP exhibits everybody why he has a PhD in powerful shot-making.
One other key element of OKC’s offense is guard-guard actions. Each one of many Thunder’s rotation gamers are prepared and succesful screeners, and they’re going to use that to deliver Haliburton’s man into the play to create a mismatch for Shai.
To counter this, Indiana must shoot the hole and shut off Shai’s driving lanes. Denver did a good job of this of their spherical two collection, forcing the MVP to place up powerful photographs just like the one under.
OKC needed to assault Jamal Murray, put him in motion to protect Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Williams screens, Denver provides the change however have a look at the assistance from Christian Braun. Parked on the nail. Try to take away driving lanes and contest. pic.twitter.com/NBiBE78h0U
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) Could 10, 2025
With that in thoughts, Indiana’s greatest probability at slowing down the Thunder is, properly, slowing down Shai. OKC’s one Achilles heel is their secondary offense, so the Pacers have to get the ball out of Shai’s palms and drive the Thunder’s supporting forged to beat them as an alternative.
The numbers again that up, too. Amongst OKC’s rotation gamers, solely iHart and Caruso have scored with above-average effectivity relative to their place, outdoors of Shai. The Thunder are additionally capturing simply 33.5% from deep through the postseason, which is among the worst marks amongst all groups who made it to the playoffs.
Total, Indiana’s path to success is straightforward in principle however onerous to execute. They should stop Shai from simply switching on to Turner and Haliburton and entice him early within the possession earlier than he will get to his spot. The Pacers’ different defenders will then should be sharp with their rotations to forestall a simple basket whereas being outnumbered, though forcing the Thunders’ secondary creators to attain must be thought of a win for Indiana.
If the Pacers handle to perform that and OKC continues to wrestle with their shot, then they’ll have a shot at victory.
X-Issue: Myles Turner
Turner struggled in opposition to New York, as KAT mainly bought something he needed offensively. Chet isn’t as gifted of a shooter as Large Purr, so Turner gained’t have to defend him as tightly on the perimeter. Nonetheless, Chet is greater than able to creating his personal shot whereas additionally being a greater passer than KAT, so Turner will want to concentrate on different actions the Thunder is perhaps operating.
Furthermore, the Pacers’ weakest hyperlink of their rotation is their centre depth, or lack thereof. Indiana has no dependable backup bigs behind Turner, so he must be counted on to play huge minutes with out getting in foul hassle. As talked about earlier than, Shai will hunt him relentlessly, and Turner wants to forestall giving up a simple change by hedging and recovering or trapping the MVP.
Offensively, Turner may even have to proceed hitting threes constantly. OKC is prepared to surrender open appears to be like from the nook, particularly for opposing bigs when Chet/iHart are extra centered on defending the paint. I’m unsure how possible it’s to anticipate Turner to proceed making 40% of his whole threes and 50% from the nook, however these numbers can’t drop off drastically if the Pacers hope to drag off a historic upset.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
The Pacers will make this a aggressive collection with their revolutionary offense and ingenius teaching, however the expertise mismatch can be an excessive amount of to beat. OKC is arguably the one crew that may sustain with Indiana’s (the Thunder’s tempo is definitely larger than the Pacers’ these playoffs) pace, which can neutralize the Pacers’ major trump card.
Merely put, too many issues have to go proper for the Pacers to be topped champs. Indiana must win the turnover battle, restrict Shai’s effectiveness, and hope OKC continues to wrestle capturing, whereas the Thunder ought to win just by enjoying on the identical stage they’ve been your complete playoffs. It’s not unattainable given the comebacks the Pacers have already pulled off, however there’s an inevitability to this Thunder crew that makes it unattainable to wager in opposition to.
OKC will lastly win the title that when appeared assured, and their new Large Three will avenge the dynasty that by no means was.
