It’s Christmas time within the NBA! The playoffs are lastly right here, and followers are beginning to delude themselves into considering their staff will go 16-0.
Fortunately, this yr’s postseason appears poised to be thrilling from begin to end. The West has three sequence which might be reputable coin tosses, whereas the fourth is… nicely, a warm-up lap for OKC.
So, with out additional ado, it’s time to preview the first-round matchups and choose the winner from the West. It’s also possible to discover the preview for the East right here.
Be aware: all stats used are from after the All-Star break
#1 Oklahoma Metropolis vs #8 Dallas/Memphis
Dallas/Memphis, welcome to the OKC Invitation! Right here, you’ll study what it’s prefer to play a staff that’s really purposeful and pulling in the identical path.
Though neither potential eight-seed has an opportunity on this sequence, there are specific issues that each groups can do to make life hard-ER on the Thunder. For the Mavs, the plan is straightforward: use measurement to kill OKC on the boards. Even with the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder can nonetheless be inclined at instances to giving up rebounds on both finish of the court docket. That performs nicely into the palms of Nico Harrison’s completely constructed defensive staff, as Dallas sports activities a 31.4% offensive rebounding charge — which might rank fourth league-wide — when Anthony Davis shares the court docket with Daniel Gafford.
Then again, Memphis must pile up as many simple buckets as attainable, by working at each likelihood. The Grizzlies’ 16.6% transition frequency ranks eighth within the league, boosting an offense that’s inclined to getting slowed down within the half-court. Sadly, OKC is second league-wide in limiting transition possibilities — solely 12.5% of opponent possessions happen in such performs. Thus, Memphis might want to create extra turnovers and play a run-and-gun fashion in the event that they hope to even win a single recreation on this sequence.
Prediction: SGA, GTA, PSA, Thunder in 5.
#2 Houston vs #7 Golden State
Key query: How will the Warriors cope with Houston’s measurement?
It’s a story as previous as time: the weary previous grasp warding off the hungry younger buck who’s nipping at his ankles. Will the grizzled veteran win as soon as extra, or be overcome by the youthful apprentice?
For the Rockets, the important thing to victory might come from their very own “veteran,” Steven Adams — who’s by some means nonetheless solely 31. The Huge Kiwi acquired extra enjoying time down the stretch, serving to Houston completely bludgeon opposing groups on the glass: when he and Alperen Sengun shared the court docket, the Rockets have a ridiculous 50.3%(!!!) offensive rebound charge. I’m not a mathematician, however getting second-chance alternatives on half your photographs appears first rate.
These Houston lineups have additionally outscored opponents by +30 per 100 possessions, though they’ve had unsustainable capturing luck on either side of the ball. These stats are the product of simply 334 possessions too, so using Adams is extra of a last-ditch resort reasonably than their go-to choice. Even so, the Rockets nonetheless have a 32.9% offensive rebounding charge with out Adams — which might nonetheless rank third league-wide — posing a novel foil to a Golden State staff whose greatest lineup is having Draymond play middle, and the Warriors’ defensive rebounding charge of 72% is simply mediocre (14th league-wide).
Going huge vs small is actually each groups’ approach of making extra offense. The Rockets make use of behemoths to offer themselves as many scoring alternatives as attainable resulting from their poor half-court assault, whereas the Warriors downsize in favor of velocity and ability. With that in thoughts, this sequence might come down as to whether Houston can generate sufficient second-chance alternatives to maintain up with Golden State’s perimeter stars searching their bigs.
Alas, the Warriors having the 2 greatest gamers on this matchup ought to be an excessive amount of for the Rockets to beat. The grasp would possibly win once more by way of expertise, nevertheless it certainly will probably be his final dance.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
#3 Los Angeles Lakers vs #6 Minnesota
Key query: how will the Wolves reply to enjoying small?
Let’s make one factor clear: Rudy Gobert is an all-time-level defensive participant and this isn’t a fallacious blame Rudy area.
Nevertheless, the Lakers are uniquely constructed to assault his weaknesses at each ends of the court docket. That doesn’t imply Gobert will probably be benched for the sequence, however he’ll play lower than ordinary. The Stifle Tower might sit throughout some crunch time minutes resulting from LAL having three perimeter gamers who can take turns isolating in opposition to him on the perimeter, nullifying Gobert’s greatest defensive trait — rim safety. Extra importantly, Gobert’s weak offensive recreation signifies that the Lakers can guard him with smaller gamers in order that they will proceed trotting out their most optimum lineup.
Within the common season, Minnesota’s offensive ranking improved from 115.3 (56th percentile) to 119.2 (82nd) when Gobert sat, however their protection additionally dropped from 108.6 (91st) to 116.3 (thirty ninth). Given what we mentioned, the Wolves’ protection gained’t be as elite with Gobert in opposition to the Lakers, nevertheless it’ll nonetheless expertise a decline. What Chris Finch and his teaching employees have to resolve is whether or not the defensive trade-off is price what they will add offensively.
When Gobert sits, Minnesota makes an attempt 44.9% of their photographs from deep (93rd percentile), and each the Wolves and Lakers are ranked top-10 in three-point quantity and share for the reason that All-Star break. In different phrases, this matchup might shortly devolve right into a three-point battle, particularly if Naz Reid and Julius Randle are performed in favor of Gobert.
Given the volatility of long-range capturing, although, this sequence may very well be determined by which staff scores extra on the rim. Each squads are surprisingly above-average in discipline objective share allowed round their very own basket (together with Minnesota with out Gobert), however the Wolves concede heaps extra makes an attempt sans Gobert (34.7%) than the Lakers have with Luka (30.5%).
Mix that with LAL doubtlessly having the 2 greatest gamers within the sequence, and it’s laborious to not choose the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
#4 Denver vs #5 Los Angeles Clippers
Key query: will LA change their playstyle to use Denver’s weaknesses?
The Clippers have a novel alternative to assault the Nuggets’ defensive weaknesses, akin to within the choose and roll. This season, opposing groups have scored 1.38 factors per possession when Jokic has been attacked within the P&R — one of many 10 worst marks within the league amongst rotation bigs.
Nevertheless, in contrast to James Harden groups of the previous, the Clippers have gone away from working a heavy P&R offense. They rank twenty fourth league-wide in P&R frequency at simply 14.6%, and Harden himself is barely working 6.4 per recreation (twentieth league-wide). Even so, the Beard stays an elite playmaker, which is clear in Ivica Zubac’s stats as a roll man: Zubac’s 1.25 factors per possession because the finisher within the P&R ranks within the 79th percentile, and is barely 0.04 factors decrease than Jokic’s.
Furthermore, Zubac is an elite scorer within the paint. He averages the second most post-ups per recreation (sure, behind Jokic) whereas scoring 1.06ppp — rating within the 66th percentile — which is, as soon as once more, slightly below Jokic (1.09ppp). This has helped the Clippers make 68.5% of their makes an attempt across the rim for the reason that All-Star break (4th), however solely 27.7% of their photographs are available that space (twenty fifth). Contemplating rim safety is certainly one of Jokic’s defensive weaknesses, LAC stands to prioritize photographs across the basket to take benefit.
Provided that Huge Zu can also be one of many solely gamers within the league who has the energy to adequately defend Jokic one-on-one, he’s undoubtedly the X-factor on this sequence. So long as he stays out of foul bother, the Clippers ought to have the higher hand.
Prediction: Clippers in 7
Western Convention Finals prediction
Oklahoma Metropolis over Los Angeles Lakers
OKC is just about a lock to make it to the Convention Finals, however the beauty of this yr’s West is that each different staff can persuade themselves of the identical, too. I in the end went with the Lakers as a result of Luka might be the very best participant in any sequence, and I like how they match up with the groups that stand between them and a Convention Finals berth. I’m not assured in selecting LA by any means, however because it presently stands, they’ve the very best likelihood in my books.
NBA Finals prediction
Boston over Oklahoma Metropolis, Tatum wins Finals MVP
This was my pre-season choose and I’m sticking to it. It’s really a coin toss between two juggernauts, however I believe Boston’s ceiling is only a tad greater due to their pedigree and the one true x-factor: Kristaps Porzingis. If he stays wholesome, this Celtics staff has no weaknesses and I’m nonetheless not satisfied that OKC’s supporting solid can rating sufficient to maintain up with Boston, even accounting for Shai’s transcendent greatness. This choose is solely depending on the Celtics staying wholesome, although, which could already be a idiot’s errand on condition that Jaylen Brown’s knee remains to be wonky. Nonetheless, the Thunder’s bigs don’t have the very best monitor file in relation to well being, both, and Boston is a extra seasoned and battle-tested model of OKC in some ways.
No matter what occurs, this ought to be essentially the most epic finals in years, and we might look again on it as a passing of the torch between two of the very best groups in latest reminiscence.
