It’s Christmas time within the NBA! The playoffs are lastly right here, and followers are beginning to delude themselves into considering their group will go 16-0.
Fortunately, this 12 months’s postseason appears poised to be thrilling from begin to end. The East isn’t as loaded because the West, but it surely nonetheless has a couple of intriguing collection that would begin/heighten some rivalries.
So, with out additional ado, it’s time to preview the first-round matchups and decide the winner from the East.
Word: all stats used are from after the All-Star break
#1 Cleveland vs #8 Atlanta/Miami
This collection will likely be a massacre no matter who Cleveland performs.
On paper, Atlanta matches up higher with the Cavs — that’s to say, they could win one recreation to Miami’s zero. The Hawks’ 30.1% offensive rebound charge (seventh league-wide) is the one space that would give Cleveland some bother, as the one actual weak point of the one-seed is their lackluster defensive rebounding charge (70%, twenty seventh). Atlanta additionally has the second-highest transition frequency at 17.7%, and the Cavs are mediocre at limiting these alternatives — opposing groups run out on Cleveland 15.1% of the time, rating sixteenth within the league.
What about Miami? Umm… they may intimidate Cleveland with their tradition, I assume? Jokes apart, the Warmth can keep aggressive within the collection by limiting the Cavs from getting simple buckets. Miami is second within the league in limiting fouls, giving opponents a free-throw charge of simply 15.2 per 100 possessions. Their 74.3% defensive rebounding charge can also be fifth league-wide, so Cleveland might want to work to create second-chance alternatives.
And after saying all that, this collection will finish in a simple gents’s sweep at most.
Prediction: Cavs in 5 vs Atlanta, Cavs in 4 vs Miami
#2 Boston vs #7 Orlando
Key query: how a lot can Orlando restrict Boston’s threes?
Identical to the 1v8 matchup, the decrease seed has no probability on this collection — exterior of recreation 1, the place Orlando all the time performs just like the 96’ Bulls.
The Magic aren’t going to win, however they’ll nonetheless achieve some helpful expertise and perception as to what their group wants transferring ahead. A method they’ll make life tough for Boston, although, is by limiting the Celtics’ quantity of threes.
Orlando has allowed solely 36.2% of opponent pictures to return from deep, which is sweet for fourth league-wide. After all, Boston is thought for getting up extra threes than DLo after a loss, as they’ve led the league all 12 months in three-point quantity at over 50%.
Forcing the Celtics off the road would end in them making an attempt extra pictures round Orlando’s basket, however the Magic are additionally an elite rim-protecting group — they’re fifth within the league by permitting simply 63.1% capturing inside 4 ft of the basket. Nevertheless, the Celtics are additionally elite at ending in that space by scoring on 72.3% of their makes an attempt, good for third league-wide. It’s a pick-your-poison state of affairs for Orlando, however given Boston’s propensity to wrestle after they’re not taking/making threes, forcing them to drive extra is actually the lesser of two evils.
And after saying all that, I’ll be beneficiant and provides the Magic one recreation.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
#3 New York vs #6 Detroit
Key query: the place will Detroit’s secondary offense come from?
Cade Cunningham will have to be one of the best participant on this collection if the Pistons hope to have an opportunity. That’s not an outlandish assertion given his All-NBA caliber season and Jalen Brunson simply coming back from harm, however even when Cade’s spectacular, Detroit nonetheless wants to seek out sufficient scoring to maintain up with New York.
Jalen Duren, specifically, must have an enormous collection. The Knicks’ defensive limitations begin with KAT, who was one of many league’s worst rim protectors within the common season. New York has allowed 68.3% opponent capturing across the rim and 33.3% of opponent pictures have are available in that space, too – each marks rating twenty fourth league-wide. That bodes nicely for Duren, whose 73% ending on the basket ranks within the 73rd percentile amongst all bigs.
One other energy of Detroit’s is foul drawing – they’ve made 21.7 free throws per 100 shot makes an attempt because the All-Star break, good for fifth within the league. The Knicks have accomplished an admirable job of limiting fouls of their very own, as opposing groups solely have a 17.5 free throw over that very same span. Nevertheless, KAT has a spotty monitor document of committing fouls on the most inopportune instances, so the Pistons could be good to place him in as many actions as doable, together with having him switched onto Cade within the pick-and-roll.
If every thing breaks proper, the Pistons might make this an extended collection and even pull off an upset. Nonetheless, it’s onerous to guess towards New York after they have 4 of the 5 finest gamers and are extra seasoned.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
#4 Indiana vs #5 Milwaukee
Key query: can Milwaukee restrict turnovers and rating effectively on the rim?
Even with unquestionably one of the best participant within the collection, the Bucks are heavy underdogs towards Indiana. If they need a fighter’s probability at advancing, Milwaukee must do two issues: restrict turnovers and rating at an elite degree across the basket.
For the reason that All-Star break, the Bucks have turned over the ball on simply 13% of their possessions, good for fifth league-wide. Nevertheless, the Pacers are additionally probably the greatest groups at forcing turnovers, which they’ve accomplished on 14.8% of opponent possessions, rating ninth throughout that very same span. Extra importantly, Indiana has additionally been elite in transition, sporting a 132.1 offensive score (ninth league-wide). Merely put, Milwaukee must do nearly as good of a job, if not a greater one, at limiting their turnovers in the event that they need to keep on this collection.
On offense, Giannis might want to by some means dominate the paint much more than normal. The Bucks shot 72.8% inside 4 ft of the basket (2nd), however the Pacers have additionally been elite at defending the rim, too — they’re permitting simply 62.7% capturing there, good for third league-wide.
With that stated, I’ve religion that Giannis will be capable to impose his will towards Evan Turner and Indiana’s protection on condition that he’s an all-time paint scorer. That Indiana has allowed 34.2% of opponent pictures to return across the basket (twenty sixth) additionally performs in Milwaukee’s favor, however the Bucks might want to enhance their very own rim makes an attempt (30.2%, nineteenth) in an effort to take full benefit.
Even so, Milwaukee’s at such a expertise drawback that Giannis’ transcendent greatness received’t be capable to carry them over the Pacers. Dame making a possible comeback would make this collection extra tightly contested, but it surely’s onerous to see the Bucks going the space proper now.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
Jap Convention Finals prediction
Boston over Cleveland
Oh, what a shocker! Two of the three finest groups all 12 months will meet within the ECF, and I’m sticking with Boston. Assuming they’re wholesome, the Celtics have extra expertise and the next defensive ground, whereas nonetheless having sufficient firepower to maintain up with the Cavs. Maybe I’m nonetheless too skeptical of Cleveland, however I’d be mildly stunned in the event that they managed to get by a loaded Boston squad.
NBA Finals prediction
Boston over Oklahoma Metropolis, Tatum wins Finals MVP
This was my pre-season decide and I’m sticking to it. It’s actually a coin toss between two juggernauts, however I feel Boston’s ceiling is only a tad greater due to their pedigree and the one true x-factor: Kristaps Porzingis. If he stays wholesome, this Celtics group has no weaknesses and I’m nonetheless not satisfied that OKC’s supporting solid can rating sufficient to maintain up with Boston, even accounting for Shai’s transcendent greatness. This decide is solely depending on the Celtics staying wholesome, although, which could already be a idiot’s errand on condition that Jaylen Brown’s knee continues to be wonky. Nonetheless, the Thunder’s bigs don’t have one of the best monitor document on the subject of well being, both, and Boston is a extra seasoned and battle-tested model of OKC in some ways.
No matter what occurs, this ought to be probably the most epic finals in years, and we might look again on it as a passing of the torch between two of one of the best groups in latest reminiscence.
