Fortunately, the NBA common season has ended. Others have identified that “angst” could be a very good phrase to explain the season. There have been some nice storylines in OKC, Cleveland and Detroit, together with Golden State’s late season rejuvenation after selecting up Jimmy Playoff Butler. Nevertheless, a lot of the season revolved round accidents to key gamers, trades of star gamers and training turmoil. The Spurs had been concerned in every of these three classes with the season-ending damage to Victor Wembanyama, the commerce for D’Aaron Fox (who then additionally voluntarily fell into class one together with his finger surgical procedure), and Gregg Popovich’s stroke in November.
I had one other supply of angst: my preseason over/underneath predictions for every Western Convention staff. That is one thing I do yearly, regardless that it’s one thing I’m clearly not excellent at. Certainly, my editor added the next sub-headline to my 2024-25 predictions:
“This didn’t go effectively final season, so let’s attempt it once more!”
They are saying it takes a robust man to confess his errors. I get stronger annually. Let’s look again to my 2024-2025 season prediction and see how I did. As with my October 21, 2024 predictions, I’ll begin with the staff with the very best win prediction and go down from there.
Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder
Predicted Win Complete: 56.5
Precise Win Complete: 68.
My Prediction: OVER.
Hey, let’s begin with a win! My prediction included this constructive language: “I perceive the optimism about OKC, because the Thunder has principally everybody again from final yr’s glorious younger staff apart from Josh Giddy, and so they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile huge man Isaiah Hartenstein.” Let’s ignore the truth that I additionally used the phrases “simply barely” on my OVER prediction. OKC exceeded the Vegas prediction by 11.5 video games Take the win, Lee!
Minnesota Timberwolves
Predicted Win Complete: 52.5
Precise Win Complete: 49
My Prediction: OVER.
Trying again, I’m shocked to see that Vegas predicted the T’Wolves to have the second greatest document within the West. Much more stunning is that I took the OVER, incorrectly suggesting that buying and selling away Karl-Anthony Cities could be an improve. In completely associated information, KAT will seemingly be Second Group All-NBA (although he would in all probability be Third Group if Victor had performed the 65-game minimal).
Denver Nuggets
Predicted Win Complete: 51.5
Precise Win Complete: 50
My Prediction: UNDER.
One other win, however simply barely. I commented in regards to the Nuggets’ lack of useful function gamers and requested in the event that they had been losing Jokic’s prime years earlier than he decides to maneuver again to Serbia to experience his horses. Fact be informed, the Nuggets’ UNDER might be greatest defined by prolonged accidents to Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, as Jokic had a season for the ages.
Dallas Mavericks
Predicted Win Complete: 49.5
Precise Win Complete: 39
My Prediction: UNDER.
One other win, however nowhere in my dialogue of the Mavs’ upcoming season did I predict that they might resolve to commerce 25-year-old Luka Doncic to the Lakes for 31-year-old Anthony Davis and Doug Christie’s son. If I had predicted that commerce (nobody else did both), I might have actually predicted that AD would get injured shortly after the commerce, and I might have been proper. I might have additionally been appropriate in predicting that buying and selling Luka would make Mavs’ followers the saddest within the league. I hope they at the very least get pleasure from their one-and-done within the Play-In Tourney.
Phoenix Suns
Predicted Win Complete: 47.5
Precise Win Complete: 36
My Prediction: OVER.
I used to be so unsuitable on this one. I mentioned: “As for the Suns, selecting up a real level guard in Tyus Jones can be very useful. The Suns gained 49 final season regardless of a bunch of accidents. It is a wager that Kevin Durant will keep comparatively wholesome. OVER.” KD in truth stayed comparatively wholesome till the top of the season and averaged 26.6 factors, 6.0 boards and 4.2 assists. Devin Booker additionally has good numbers (25.6/4.1/7.1). However the staff sucked, in the end firing our outdated good friend Mike Budenholzer the day after the season mercifully ended. I take some solace from the truth that whereas I used to be unsuitable about this staff, nearly everybody else was too. Yet one more unhappy fan base.
Memphis Grizzlies
Predicted Win Complete: 47.5
Precise Win Complete: 48
My Prediction: OVER.
In my preseason column, I mentioned: “Of their prime ten PPG scorers, solely Jaron Jackson, Jr. performed greater than 50 video games [in 2023-24]. Will a wholesome season permit Memphis to win 20 extra video games than final yr’s misplaced season? In all probability.” Memphis had a bizarre season in 2024-25, firing their coach (ex-Spurs assistant Taylor Jenkins) close to the top of the season and by no means wanting just like the pleased, over-achieving squad that received a 2-seed only a few years again. Ja Morant is throwing pretend grenades into the group, inviting the league to droop him. He ought to attempt a pretend bow and arrow subsequent. However someway, the Grizzlies wound up on the OVER, giving me a slim win. I would like all of the wins I can get, as issues begin going south very quickly.
Sacramento Kings
Predicted Win Complete: 46.5
Precise Win Complete: 40
My Prediction: OVER.
I mentioned: “In fact, the Kings already had an excellent offense, which is why they gained 46 video games final yr. Will DeRozan be value another win? OVER.” As with the Grizzlies, the Kings went from being a feel-good story to one thing a lot lower than that. As an alternative, this yr’s model grew to become the identical outdated Kings, struggling to make the Play-In Tourney, and including a brand new twist: buying and selling away their greatest participant whereas he simply getting into his prime. In fact, nobody in Spurs Nation is complaining about that twist because the Spurs benefitted by buying De’Aaron Fox – regardless that it meant one other loss for me right here. I’ll take that commerce.
New Orleans Pelicans
Predicted Win Complete: 46.5
Precise Win Complete: 21
My Prediction: UNDER
One other unhappy staff, one other staff not a feel-good story, and one other unhappy fan base. The one good factor? The Pelicans had been so dangerous that my April Idiot’s Day column might credibly report a commerce of Wembanyama for the complete Pelicans roster. Earlier than the season, I mentioned: “I believe this island of mis-matched toys might take a step again from final yr’s 49 wins. UNDER.”. “Mis-matched toys” was correct. A “step again” was an understatement. The Pelicans “stepped again” off a cliff into the trail of an oncoming practice. Yikes, the Pelicans had been dangerous.
Golden State Warriors
Predicted Win Complete: 44.5
Precise Win Complete: 48
My Prediction: OVER.
My OVER prediction was based mostly on one factor: “The Warriors nonetheless have Steph Curry, which implies OVER.” If I might have identified how the W’s season turned out, I might have mentioned, “The Warriors nonetheless have Steph Curry, and can choose up Jimmy Butler”. I might have additionally mentioned that the Warriors may be the staff nobody desires to play. The extra video games Curry and the Ws win within the playoffs, the higher the TV scores can be.
Los Angeles Lakers
Predicted Win Complete 43.5
Precise Win Complete: 50
My Prediction: UNDER.
I missed badly on each Los Angeles groups, which supplies all my associates right here in Los Angeles one thing to chirp about. For the Lakers I mentioned, “even with comparatively wholesome seasons from LeBron and AD, the Lakers gained simply 47 video games final yr and didn’t end within the prime six within the West. Would you wager on one other wholesome season from the Lakers’ greatest two gamers? UNDER.” It seems I requested the unsuitable query. The proper query would have requested how the Lakers would do in the event that they traded for Doncic, LeBron had a throw-back season, Austin Reaves grew to become a star, and a man who had by no means coached a sport earlier than (J.J. Reddick) truly grew to become fairly good at it. That query I may need answered appropriately. Versus my UNDER prediction for the No. 3 seed within the West.
Los Angeles Clippers
Predicted Win Complete: 39.5
Precise Win Complete: 50
My Prediction: UNDER
One other loss for me. I mentioned, “The Clippers misplaced Paul George and received nothing again. Spurs followers had been upset when Kawhi Leonard wished out of San Antonio six years in the past, however the Spurs in all probability are glad that Kawhi departed… In associated information, Kawhi is 33 years outdated and within the first yr of a three-year $152 million contract. Unhappy. UNDER.” Simply as everybody was overly optimistic in regards to the Suns, everybody (together with me) was overly pessimistic in regards to the Clippers, predicting them to complete underneath .500. Though Kawhi solely performed 37 video games, the Clippers performed effectively all through the season, and matched the Lakers with 50 wins. And with Kawhi wanting good, the Clippers are rightfully seen as professional contenders. You recognize the “if” sentence that follows. It consists of the phrases “Kawhi”, “stays” and “wholesome”.
Houston Rockets
Predicted Win Complete: 43.5
Precise Win Complete: 52
My Prediction: UNDER
Joking round as a substitute of any precise evaluation, I mentioned: “Will dropping Boban to a European staff doom the Rockets? Karma says UNDER.” It seems that my joking round prediction was no higher than Las Vegas, which additionally badly missed on this staff. As did everybody else. I don’t suppose anybody had the Rockets successful 52 video games and ending No. 2 within the loaded Western Convention. Certainly, Vegas had the Rockets coming in eleventh and lacking the Play-In Tourney. Oops.
San Antonio Spurs
Predicted Win Complete: 36.5
Precise Win Complete: 34
My Prediction: OVER.
As a long-time Pounding the Rock author, I’m contractually obligated to foretell OVER for the Spurs. (I might have finished it anyway.) Absent the lack of Pop in November and Victor Wembanyama in February, I might have been proper. By the way in which, my prediction for the 2025-26 season? OVER! I don’t care what Vegas predicts, I’m going OVER.
Utah Jazz
Predicted Win Complete: 29.5
Precise Win Complete: 17
My Prediction: UNDER.
I mentioned, “Hey, I simply realized that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! However they falsely listing him at 6’2”. I’ve each the Jazz and Patty as UNDER.” I used to be proper on this, largely as a result of (1) the Jazz don’t have good gamers and (2) based mostly on no 1, the Jazz determined early on that Cooper Flagg would look excellent in a Jazz jersey. Additionally, Patty Mills ended the season on the Mavs. He deserves to be in a greater place.
Portland Path Blazers
Predicted Win Complete: 22.5
Precise Win Complete: 36
My Prediction: UNDER
Together with everybody else, I missed badly on the Blazers. I mentioned “I count on the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery.” As an alternative, the Blazers grew to become an under-the-radar success story, even rewarding their coach Chauncey Billups with a protracted extension. And he can ask Coach Bud what meaning for his job safety…
Abstract
Hey, I did higher than final season’s abysmal 5–10 document. This yr: 7–8, which might have made the Play-Tourney within the Jap Convention. A low bar, I do know, however that’s all I received. Subsequent yr, both I proceed an upward development (just like the Thunder and Rockets) or I flip this feel-good story into a tragic one (just like the Kings and Pelicans). I predict the UNDER.
