Wednesday evening’s Cavs-Thunder showdown was among the finest common season video games of the final decade. It was the primary time in NBA historical past that two groups on tempo for 70+ wins performed this late within the season, and it felt like a playoff sport on condition that either side had two days off to prep. What’s extra, it featured the league’s finest offense (Cleveland, 123.5 offensive score) and protection (OKC, 104.4 defensive score), with each enjoying at a traditionally nice stage on their respective sides of the ball.
Alongside Boston, Cleveland and OKC are undoubtedly heavy favorites to go on a protracted postseason run, so it’s value analyzing the sport to seek out takeaways in a possible finals matchup. Let’s begin with the Cavs.
It’s 2024 2025, and the Cavs are dominating with two bigs!
One of many largest variations between this Cleveland crew and the one final 12 months is that the Twin Towers duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is now a energy on offense. With each on the courtroom this season, Cleveland has a whopping 124.1 ORTG (96th percentile) — an astronomical enchancment on their measly 112.8 ORTG (thirty sixth percentile) final 12 months.
So, what’s modified? For starters, Kenny Atkinson has empowered the bigs to run two-man motion amongst themselves. The Cavs all the time area the courtroom with three shooters each time they share the courtroom, and a easy excessive decide and roll opens up straightforward baskets because the opposing crew is reluctant to assist from the perimeter.
Mobley’s added energy and aggression have additionally made it straightforward for Cleveland’s teaching employees to run extra performs for him attacking downhill. By placing the ball in Mobley’s arms on the prime of the important thing, the lane isn’t as clogged since Allen is the one one within the paint. If Allen’s man stays with him, Mobley can punish his mismatch towards a smaller participant, and if he’s doubled, then he can dump the ball to an open Allen.
If neither large is concerned within the motion, the Cavs may even have Mobley area out on the perimeter in order that Allen’s the lone man down low — a method that works now that the previous is taking pictures 41.4% from deep on 2.8 makes an attempt per sport. Merely put, Cleveland has turned their two bigs downside right into a energy via some modern set designs and pure progress from Mobley. Pair that with a bounceback season from Darius Garland and you’ve got an all-time offense that was the Cavs’ largest weak spot as lately as final season.
Extra importantly, Cleveland gave everybody the blueprint on how you can penetrate an OKC protection that appeared insurmountable. Each one of many Thunder’s rotation gamers is an above-average to elite man defender, so the Cavs generated good pictures via ball motion as a substitute of counting on isolations. Cleveland solely trusted Garland, Donovan Mitchell, and Ty Jerome to deal with the ball for lengthy stretches to restrict OKC’s probability at forcing turnovers, and everybody is aware of their function. Outdoors of the guards and bigs, everybody else’s job on offense is to shoot, they usually run a number of units to create good pictures.
For instance, the very first possession of the sport included two high-ball screens that led to an open three from Dean Wade. Cleveland is aware of that the Thunder likes to change their perimeter defenders however not their bigs, so when SGA fought over Allen’s display, Isaiah Hartenstein needed to briefly stunt towards Garland to include his drive. This left him a step behind the play, forcing Cason Wallace to assist down low and leaving Wade open within the nook.
Every time the Cavs acquired within the paint, they might additionally pull Hartenstein out of place earlier than making an attempt pictures across the basket (like the primary clip proven above) since he’s an elite rim protector. Consequently, the Cavs made a powerful 23/33 pictures inside 4 ft of the basket, a pleasant 69.7% conversion fee that’s over 8% greater than what OKC often provides up in that space. That Cleveland dropped 129 factors on the league’s finest protection with out having an outlier taking pictures efficiency (they made 15/36 from three, which remains to be 41.7% however on 4 fewer makes an attempt than their season common) and an off-night from Mitchell (3/16 for 11 factors) proves that this Cavs offense is legit.
Has OKC mounted their offensive “points”?
On the opposite aspect, OKC placing up 122 factors was maybe much more spectacular. After a sluggish offensive begin to the season, the Thunder have now climbed to seventh league-wide in offensive score (116.7). Even so, there’s little question that the most important query mark surrounding this OKC crew is whether or not they can generate sufficient scoring to win 4 playoff rounds.
Shai is the top of the snake. When Mr. Aura is on the courtroom, the Thunder are inclined to run all the pieces via him, particularly when the opposing crew is giving up tender switches. Cleveland did precisely that on Wednesday evening, and Shai fortunately cooked all of his assignments together with his all-time-level iso talents.
Thus far this season, Shai is averaging the second most isolations per sport (solely behind James Harden) and scoring a mean of 1.05 factors per play, rating within the 84.7% percentile amongst all gamers. With him enjoying, OKC’s offense seems fairly stagnant on account of his iso-heavy fashion, however there’s no cause to alter on condition that the Thunder’s offensive score skyrockets to 120.2 with him on the courtroom.
Sadly, that quantity plummets all the way in which all the way down to 106.1 when he sits — which might be barely higher than the last-place Wizards at 105.8. Virtually all of OKC’s lineups with out Shai function their second possibility, Jalen Williams, too, so staggering their stars hasn’t labored both.
Nevertheless, that wasn’t the case towards Cleveland. When Shai sat for almost all of the third quarter on account of foul hassle, the Thunder truly put up 43 factors, largely fueled by the mixture of JDub and Hartenstein. The latter, specifically, performed an enormous function in retaining their offense afloat via his passing and tender contact across the basket.
On back-to-back performs, Hartenstein made a pleasant floater earlier than operating a hand-off motion with Isaiah Joe for an open three.
The large artificial his presence felt even earlier than Shai exited the sport, as he had a pleasant drive and cross for Wallace down low.
On the season, Hartenstein is taking pictures 53% from the mid-range (91st percentile), and he significantly likes the little floater that was proven within the earlier clip. He’s additionally an excellent passer with a 19.1% help share that ranks within the 89th percentile, and the Thunder made a aware option to run extra units that acquired him concerned when Shai was on the bench. It’s not a coincidence that Hartenstein’s 23.6% utilization within the Cavs sport resulted in one in every of OKC’s higher offensive performances of the 12 months, contemplating that his common utilization is simply 17.6%.
In different phrases, the Thunder have to get Hartenstein extra concerned, particularly when Shai is off the courtroom. OKC’s offense incorporates much more motion after they’re with out their celebrity, and Hartenstein must be on the heart of that given his distinctive playmaking talents as an enormous. When Chet returns, the Thunder could have one other versatile large who may area the ground, and having him again might elevate the non-Shai offense to satisfactory ranges as a substitute of being downright putrid.
Impressively, OKC remains to be profitable their minutes with out Shai on account of them having an absurd 104.8 DRTG with out their celebrity. Chet will solely add to that, so the Thunder will outscore groups no matter how a lot their offense struggles. Getting one other large again will assist their matchup in a possible finals show-down towards Cleveland, too, because the Cavs can’t play sizzling potato between their bigs when OKC can counter with their very own Twin Towers duo. For instance, poor Hartenstein gained’t be caught between Mobley and Allen like within the clip under.
No matter Chet’s well being standing, this OKC crew will probably be title contenders. To have a historic 104.3 DRTG with out their most impactful defender is absurd, and Shai’s scoring alone is sufficient for them to beat anybody on account of their defensive spine.
What concerning the large dangerous Celtics?
Boston has gone simply 6-6 over their final 12 video games, with essentially the most notable loss coming to OKC after they scored simply 27 factors in the complete second half.
Given their historical past and expertise, although, I nonetheless imagine that the Celtics are the crew to beat. Their two largest points at present are the play of Kristaps Porzingis and below-average three-point taking pictures, each of which I anticipate to bounce again positively.
Porzingis merely seems out of rhythm, and Boston has struggled to combine him again into the lineup. With him on the courtroom this season, the Celtics have a web score of simply +2.4 (114.3 ORTG, 111.9 DRTG), they usually’re a staggering +12.8 (123.2 ORTG, 110.4 DRTG) when he sits. Nevertheless, the essential factor is that Tingus Pingus remains to be attending to his spots, most particularly the submit.
Boston is understood for his or her three-point taking pictures, however an underrated a part of their elite offense is the variety of different seems they will simply get if their pictures aren’t falling. Porzingis has been among the finest post-up gamers within the league the previous few seasons, and nothing’s modified this 12 months: he’s at present scoring a strong 1.17 factors per post-up (84th percentile) whereas averaging the seventh most makes an attempt on a per-game foundation. Attributable to Boston’s versatility, it’s straightforward for them to create a mismatch for Porzingis down low, and it’s BBQ rooster from there.
The truth that Porzingis remains to be deadly from the submit signifies that Boston nonetheless has an offensive trump card, and their concern at present is simply that the Unicorn doesn’t appear in sync with their scheme. Nevertheless, on condition that he’s virtually missed a whole 12 months of basketball on account of harm earlier than returning in November, it ought to solely be a matter of time earlier than Huge Tingus begins feeling snug once more.
The opposite downside plaguing Boston is that they’re “solely” taking pictures 37% from three after they made 39.3% final 12 months. Apparently, the Celtics are producing even higher seems from deep than the season earlier than: in 2023-24, Boston created 19.4 wide-open pictures from deep (which means that the closest defender was over 6 ft away), and that’s truly elevated to 21.3 this 12 months.
What’s modified is that they made 8.1 of these pictures final season (41.6%) and that’s solely improved marginally to eight.2 at present, and their 38.5% conversion fee is under common, rating simply sixteenth league-wide. For arguably the very best taking pictures crew within the league, that share is sure to enhance, particularly in the event that they preserve creating so many open seems. There’s simply no manner that Jaylen Brown, Jrue Vacation, and Porzingis will all proceed changing lower than 35% of their makes an attempt.
Frankly, this looks as if a veteran crew simply going via the doldrums of one other lengthy season, they usually’ll hit one other gear come playoff time. Even so, the Cavs and Thunder belong in the identical tier as Boston, and there’s little question that these three groups have separated themselves from the remainder of the league.
This week, please try Pete’s article on how Hector Banana-Bread Wemby is increasing his offensive sport! Pete does an amazing job of utilizing numbers to interrupt down Wemby’s play and his three-point taking pictures.
Thanks for studying! I hope everybody’s having an amazing begin to 2025. In some way, we’re nearer to 2050 than 2000 now…
All stats courtesy of Cleansing the Glass and NBA Stats.
