Every year right now, I make some predictions concerning the upcoming NBA season, specializing in the Western Convention. 5 years in the past, for causes I can not bear in mind, I made a decision to make these predictions Twitter-style, limiting myself to a complete of 140 characters (together with areas between phrases) per staff. This led to summaries like this one for the 2019-2020 Spurs:
“Our Spurs! Many good/excellent gamers, none in high 20. Finest coach to maximise the sort of expertise? Pop, arms down. Save the streak! eighth (139 characters)”
Ah, these have been the times — the “streak” was consecutive playoff journeys for the Spurs. That steak ended the following spring when the pandemic shut down that season on the 27-36 Spurs, resulting in this text:
“This yr’s Spurs have been similar to the Woman with the Curl — Once they have been good, they have been excellent certainly, however after they have been unhealthy they have been horrid.”
Earlier than final season, I predicted whether or not every Western Convention staff would wind up over or below the Las Vegas pre-season wins prediction. How did I do? In a phrase — terribly. 5 right predictions, ten incorrect. The one good factor I did was deciding to not flip my predictions into precise cash bets. As I mentioned then:
“So this might be whether or not I might take the over or below if I had sufficient confidence (or stupidity) to truly put some cash down. (I don’t.)”
In an try to atone for final season’s debacle, I’ll return to the effectively. As soon as once more, I’ll 1. predict whether or not every staff will exceed their Vegas win prediction, and a couple of. not put my cash the place my mouth is. If any reader chooses to make use of my predictions as a information to guess precise cash, please first name 1-800-DoNotGamble.
From high to backside:
OKC Thunder: Vegas prediction — 56.5 wins
Vegas has OKC successful extra video games than anybody within the league besides the defending champs. Vegas has the Celtics (and Derrick White) successful 58.5. I perceive the optimism about OKC, because the Thunder has principally everybody again from final yr’s wonderful younger staff aside from Josh Giddy, and so they added premier defender Alex Caruso and versatile massive man Isaiah Hartenstein. 57-25 sounds doable, so I’ll go together with OVER, however simply barely.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Vegas prediction — 52.5 wins
The T’Wolves pulled off an enormous commerce with the Knicks, getting Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo and giving up Karl-Anthony Cities. Attention-grabbing commerce of unhealthy physique language guys (Randle and KAT), most likely pushed much less by basketball causes and extra by T’Wolves’ reluctance to pay KAT large cash in upcoming seasons after they may also be paying Rudy Gobert and younger famous person Anthony Edwards. Whereas they’ll miss KAT’s potential to stretch the ground (and the smarts of ex-Spur Kyle “Slo-Mo” Anderson), I nonetheless suppose the commerce might be a slight improve for a staff that gained 56 video games final season. OVER.
Denver Nuggets: Vegas prediction — 51.5 wins
Since successful all of it two seasons in the past, the Nuggets have given up precious position gamers Bruce Brown, Jeff Inexperienced and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, all for cash causes. The Nuggets hope to interchange these gamers’ manufacturing with kids, however they haven’t stepped up but. Are they losing Jokic’s prime earlier than he decides to maneuver again to Serbia to journey his horses? UNDER.
Dallas Mavericks: Vegas prediction — 49.5 wins
The Mavs gained 50 video games final season and went to the NBA Finals, however they gave up a bunch of depth within the low season, selecting up solely Klay Thompson. With attainable MVP Luka Doncic and flat-earther Kyrie Irving, and Klay not a great defender, it is a staff that may rating so much and quit so much. Within the robust Western Convention, I feel the weak protection could have the Mavs barely down from final yr. UNDER.
Phoenix Suns: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
We start a four-team scrum of golf equipment predicted to win both 46.5 or 47.5 video games. Put one other approach, Vegas thinks the eighth place staff within the West will both end 47-35 or 46-36. Ending fifth or sixth avoids the Play-In Event, seventh and eighth doesn’t. As for the Suns, selecting up a real level guard in Tyus Jones might be very useful. The Suns gained 49 final season regardless of a bunch of accidents. It is a guess that Kevin Durant will keep comparatively wholesome. OVER.
Memphis Grizzlies: Vegas prediction — 47.5 wins
The Grizzlies gained solely 27 video games final season, largely as a result of Desmond Bane performed solely 40 video games, Ja Morant performed solely 9 and Brandon Clarke performed 6. Of their high ten PPG scorers, solely Jaron Jackson, Jr. performed greater than 50 video games. Will a wholesome season permit Memphis to win 20 extra video games than final yr’s misplaced season? In all probability. OVER.
Sacramento Kings: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
The Kings picked up ex-Spur, ex-Bull DeMar DeRozan, giving up Harrison Barnes to the Spurs. That may be a web constructive for the Kings, particularly on offense. In fact, the Kings already had an excellent offense, which is why they gained 46 video games final yr. Will DeRozan be value yet one more win? OVER
New Orleans Pelicans: Vegas prediction — 46.5 wins
The Pelicans are doing an odd experiment of taking part in with out a actual heart. They could play Zion Williamson as a 6’6” level heart alongside ex-Spur, ex-Hawk Dejounte Murray, their massive low season pick-up. I feel this island of mis-matched toys might take a step again from final yr’s 49 wins. UNDER.
Golden State Warriors: Vegas prediction — 44.5 wins
Vegas has the once-mighty Warriors within the Play-In Event. The Warriors gave up Klay Thompson, who appeared to be a distraction a lot of final yr, and picked up some high quality items, together with Slo-Mo and uber-shooter Buddy Hield. I additionally like a few of their youthful gamers, and who is aware of? Possibly Andrew Wiggins might be good once more. The Warriors nonetheless have Steph Curry, which suggests OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
The Olympics reminded everybody that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the 2 of the very best 5 gamers within the NBA who hail from the USA. In fact, lots of the world’s finest gamers don’t come from the USA. Which can clarify why even with comparatively wholesome seasons from LeBron and AD, the Lakers gained simply 47 video games final yr and didn’t end within the high six within the West. Would you guess on one other wholesome season from the Lakers’ finest two gamers? UNDER.
Houston Rockets: Vegas prediction — 43.5 wins
The Rockets shocked lots of people final yr by going .500 at 41-41. This blew away the 31.5 win Vegas prediction. Will shedding Boban to a European staff doom the Rockets? Karma says UNDER.
Los Angeles Clippers: Vegas prediction — 39.5 wins
The Clippers misplaced Paul George and received nothing again. Spurs followers have been upset when Kawhi Leonard needed out of San Antonio six years in the past, however the Spurs most likely are glad that Kawhi departed. He has performed in solely 229 of 410 common season video games for the Clippers, has missed quite a few playoff video games, and his unhealthy knee gained’t let him begin the season. In associated information, Kawhi is 35 years outdated and within the first yr of a three-year $152 million contract. Unhappy. UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs: Vegas prediction — 36.5 wins
In the event you learn Pounding the Rock, you understand concerning the Spurs. It will even be blasphemy to say something however OVER. Can they win sufficient video games to get into the Play-In Event because the “Workforce No One Needs to Play”? That may be cool.
Utah Jazz: Vegas prediction — 29.5 wins
The Jazz shocked lots of people by not buying and selling Lauri Markkanen this summer time. He would have regarded good in Silver and Black. Hey, I simply realized that Patty Mills is on the Jazz! However they falsely record him at 6’2”. I’ve each the Jazz and Patty as UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers: Vegas prediction — 22.5 wins
I began final season’s over-under column by speaking about all of the expertise on the Blazers, even they have been nonetheless picked to complete final within the West. Which they did, successful solely 21 video games, lower than their predicted 28.5 wins. I anticipate the Blazers to be tanking, hoping to win the Cooper Flagg lottery. UNDER.
I’ve seven overs, and eight unders, which appears to be about the precise ratio. In fact, I had the identical ratio final yr, so maybe it doesn’t imply a lot. Go Spurs.
