Final season was all concerning the rookie for the San Antonio Spurs. Victor Wembanyama dominated headlines and jersey gross sales. Media day was all concerning the introduction of the franchise’s subsequent celebrity. Expectations have been set extremely excessive, and Wembanyama in some way surpassed them.
The Spurs’ 2024 first-round decide has not gotten the identical fanfare. It is smart. In spite of everything, it’s not day-after-day {that a} 7-foot-5 who can hit step-back jumpers is out there within the draft. Younger guards with upside are a couple of dime a dozen – however not all of them are 6-foot-6 and have been starters on an NCAA championship workforce at 18. As a result of lack of hype round his rookie season, it’s onerous to know precisely what to anticipate from Fort this 12 months.
A superb place to begin is Fort’s stats as a freshman at UCONN. Taking part in 27 minutes per sport, Fort averaged 11.1 factors, 2.9 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.5 turnovers whereas capturing 47.2% from the sector, 26.7% from deep and 75.5% on free throws. Fort was a defensive power who guarded wings and ball-handlers alike. Offensively, he took turns taking part in on and off the ball, sometimes alongside different ball-handlers like Cam Spencer and Tristan Newton. UCONN used him steadily as a screener, cutter and pick-and-roll ball handler. You could find a full breakdown of his sport right here.
Fort’s position with the Spurs must be just like how he performed at UCONN. With veterans like Chris Paul and Tre Jones on the roster, he’ll doubtless play extra off the ball or share ball-handling duties with one other guard. He ought to slot in properly with the Spurs offense that emphasizes a number of ball-handlers, passing and screening in any respect positions.
It’s onerous to discover a match within the offensive lineup for Fort. Wembanyama, Paul, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and Harrison Barnes really feel like locks. Gregg Popovich has stunned us with beginning lineups earlier than. Even with the bench unit, it’s onerous to think about Fort is tasked with a significant offensive load whereas he performs alongside Jones, Keldon Johnson and Zach Collins.
Fort ought to make a right away impression on the defensive finish. He performs with an incredible motor and has nice size and energy on the level of assault. He’ll have loads of alternatives to get into the passing lanes taking part in alongside Jones and Paul. In lineups the place he’s the first ball-handler, he’ll give the Spurs a bonus on the level of assault. As all rookies do, he’ll want time to study to be an efficient off-ball defender. His motor ought to assist him combat via screens and get to his spots.
So Fort is a rookie coming off the bench and doesn’t appear to be the point of interest of the offensive sport plan. What does the stat line like for a participant that matches that description?
I in contrast him to a different massive guard the Spurs drafted considerably lately. Dejounte Murray’s second season (utilizing it as a substitute of his rookie 12 months on account of video games performed) he began in simply 48 video games, averaging 8.1 factors, 2.9 assists and 1.2 steals whereas capturing 44.3% from the sector, 26.5% from three and 70.9% from the free throw line. He additionally made the All-NBA defensive second workforce. The counting stats may match what Fort can present this season. I might be stunned if Fort is a top-10 defender within the present NBA panorama, however he ought to nonetheless be an enormous addition.
I used to be additionally curious how top-drafted guards have fared within the final 5 years. I seemed on the stats for all guards chosen within the top-5 courting again to 2019, and got here away with a number of conclusions:
Rookie guards are sometimes fairly inefficient. Amen Thompson and Ja Morant have been the one gamers to shoot above 45% from the sector, they usually each shot sub 35% from three.
Don’t anticipate a rookie guard to be a ground basic in 12 months one. Solely LaMelo Ball and Morant averaged greater than 6 assists of their rookie seasons.
Errors will occur. All however one guard (Thompson, who performed loads of minutes as a wing/ahead as properly) averaged over 2 turnovers a sport, and half of them averaged 3 or extra.
There’s a robust monitor report for top-5 chosen guards within the final 5 years. Anthony Edwards, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Inexperienced, Jalen Suggs, Darius Garland, Morant and Ball have all become good to nice NBA gamers.
Fort will certainly undergo some struggles as a rookie. Wembanyama is the exception, not the rule. Regardless of that, he must be an impression defender and one other stable contributor off the bench. Fortunately, he’s not ready the place he must be a go-to man and dominate straight away. He’s in a very good place to study from the veterans on the roster and develop right into a long-term piece of the Spurs’ younger core. An amazing rookie season can be icing on the cake.
