The discharge of the NBA schedule is so much just like the teaser trailer for a blockbuster movie. It generates lots of hype about an upcoming product. Followers scramble to place collectively their theories on what precisely we are able to anticipate in a number of months when all is revealed.
The fact is we don’t have an important thought of what’s coming. However what the heck, it’s enjoyable to theorize. The schedule launch is the primary large piece of recent for the San Antonio Spurs in a little bit of time. Let’s dive deep into 5 takeaways from the 2023-2024 NBA schedule launch.
1. The Spurs have one of many hardest schedules within the NBA
“Congratulations on getting the primary decide, San Antonio! Now we’re going to take a look at how good he actually is.”
That’s in all probability what Adam Silver and firm thought when placing collectively this 12 months’s schedule. In line with Optimistic Residual, an NBA analytics hub, the Spurs have the hardest schedule within the NBA. Their mannequin is predicated on opponent crew energy, relaxation for each groups, the altitude the place video games are performed, distanced traveled and time zone adjustments. It’s a radical mannequin that considers extra elements than most.
They use one other mannequin referred to as a Vegas-informed Estimate of Group Energy or “VETS.” It is a metric to determine the potential high quality of the crew within the upcoming season. San Antonio has the third-worst VETS, in entrance of Washington and Detroit. So it’s not solely shocking that San Antonio isn’t favored in most of their video games. The Spurs may also have 11 video games the place they’ve a relaxation benefit, and 9 video games the place they’ve a relaxation drawback.
The Spurs will play 54 video games in opposition to groups who made the NBA playoffs final season, 29 of these video games will likely be performed in San Antonio. The groups that made the playoffs final season received’t essentially be within the hunt this 12 months. Groups all the time over-and underachieve, however these metrics are an excellent glimpse into the place the Spurs might fall within the NBA hierarchy subsequent season.
2. The start of the season goes to be robust
Victor Wembanyama goes to have fairly the welcome into the NBA. The Spurs first 10 video games embrace matchups in opposition to their two in-state rivals, 4 video games in opposition to Western Convention contenders within the Suns, Timberwolves and Clippers, in addition to robust matchups in opposition to the Knicks and Warmth.
There’s a seemingly likelihood that the Spurs end that stretch beneath .500, and it doesn’t get simpler after that. Subsequent they may go on a 9-game stretch in opposition to sturdy opponents just like the Nuggets, Thunder, Kings and Warriors. This younger roster goes to be examined early by good NBA groups. Their file within the first 20 video games will set the tone for the remainder of the season.
3. A late-season playoff push will likely be tough
Very similar to the beginning of the Spurs’ schedule, the ending will likely be a take a look at. If the Spurs discover themselves within the play-in hunt come mid-March, they may have a protracted street forward of them to get in.
That is the schedule from March fifteenth, by means of the tip of the season.
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Three matchups with the reigning champs, a double-header with the Suns, and two video games in opposition to Memphis may show to be video games that squash a younger groups hopes of playoff glory. It’s additionally a possibility for a “stealth tank” if the Spurs needs to enhance their lottery odds late within the 12 months.
An optimist’s view is that the Spurs could have the prospect to not solely make the playoffs, however topple a number of the league’s greatest so as to take action. A run of that nature can be the spotlight of the season, and an important reward for the pains of March and April final season.
4. Wembanyama will ceaselessly conflict with the perfect bigs within the league
The NBA was as soon as a guards league, nevertheless it’s shortly turning into all in regards to the large man. Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are a number of the most dominant gamers within the league. The Spurs are hoping that Wemby joins that tier of gamers.
FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR mannequin makes use of participant monitoring, wins above substitute and plus-minus measurements to weigh which gamers have the most important impression on profitable. Final season the listing of huge males that ranked top-10 in RAPTOR included: Jokic, Embiid, Davis, Brook Lopez, Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis, Kristaps Porzingis, Kevon Looney, Bam Adebayo and Al Horford. Wemby will face off in opposition to these large males simply over 20 occasions.
That’s a fourth of the Spurs video games this season, and some of these guys play on the identical crew. The basketball world will likely be watching to see how Wembanyama will stack up in opposition to the league’s greatest.
5. A greater “rodeo street journey” could possibly be coming
Because of the San Antonio Inventory Present and Rodeo, the Spurs should take the street for 9 straight video games once more this 12 months. Final season the crew received the final recreation of the street journey in Utah, saving themselves from going 0-9. This 12 months’s journey will begin in early February and shut on the finish of the month.
The Spurs have some winnable video games in Orlando, Brooklyn, Dallas, Toronto and Utah on the journey. There’s a actual likelihood they might go 5-4 and even 6-3 on this 12 months’s street journey. If the crew manages to remain wholesome over this grueling stretch, it may put them in an excellent place heading into their robust stretch in direction of the tip of the season.
