The NBA Rookie of the Yr award is usually a good indicator of future success, nevertheless it doesn’t all the time imply the participant who received it should go on to have the very best profession of his class, nor does it imply those who didn’t win it may possibly’t be simply as profitable. This 12 months, the NBA’s prime candidates are Kon Knueppel and Cooper Flagg, and each of them are particular gamers with excessive ceilings. Nonetheless, the San Antonio Spurs made the made the correct decide by choosing Dylan Harper at 2nd total (sorry, Kevin O’Connor), and right here’s why.
There are 19 NBA rookies enjoying no less than 20 minutes per recreation within the 2025-26 season, and solely three are logging no less than 30 mpg (minimal 55 video games performed): Flagg, Knueppel, and VJ Edgecomb. All three have been principally starers for his or her groups, whereas Harper is twelfth amongst rookies in minutes at 22.3 per recreation with simply two begins, which means he doesn’t have as robust of a case for ROY as his fellow prime 4 picks. Nonetheless, any rookie who has made himself a rotation participant has performed an excellent job, particularly after they earn that spot on a top quality group just like the Spurs.
Remember the fact that solely three Spurs rookies have averaged half-hour since 1988-89: Tim Duncan, David Robinson and Willie Anderson. Plenty of that has to do with how stacked many Spurs groups have been through the years, nevertheless it’s additionally not their motto to place an excessive amount of on rookies’ plates, particularly the youthful ones. Whereas the three Spurs above all entered the league aged 21 or older and began from day 1, Harper performs principally with the second unit. But notably, the five-man unit with Harper, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Stephon Fortress and Victor Wembanyama is one in every of their greatest.
That rotation is their twelfth most-used this season, however a part of the explanation for its success is having added versatility with a number of ball handlers. The opposite is the sharp perimeter protection that buys Wemby the additional second to get the place he needs.
Harper is a great shot creator, averaging a 2.76 assist-to-turnover ratio: the very best amongst rookies. Most of his passes and assists have gone to Johnson, who additionally passes him the ball essentially the most. As well, Harper is one in every of three rookies to attain in double figures with a minimal 54.0 efficient area purpose proportion, and on the Spurs, he generates the third most 3-pointers (5.4) for his teammates after Fortress and De’Aaron Fox.
Harper was by no means going to make as a lot noise as many 2nd total picks do due to his position, however take out that little bit of context, and what he’s performed issues quite a bit to a group that has was a championship contender no less than a 12 months sooner than anticipated. Regardless of being a rookie, he’s somebody coach Mitch Johnson can rely on in huge video games and is an enormous a part of why the group has a top-eight scoring bench. His rookie marketing campaign will not be as glamourous as Flagg or Knueppel’s, nevertheless it’s nonetheless uncommon for a rookie to garner that a lot belief so early of their careers.
It’s all the time troublesome to get a learn on how award voters will lean, however whereas it’s in all probability secure to imagine Harper received’t win Rookie of the Yr, he no less than deserves to be on one of many All-Rookie groups. He’s fast, robust and shifty with the ball, and whereas he has solely began twice this 12 months in opposition to two low-level opponents, the Spurs offense didn’t miss a beat in his minutes. He’s within the prime 5 amongst rookies in factors within the paint and fastbreak factors, however most significantly, he’s doing all this for a group that’s on the hunt for the league’s greatest report. Different rookies can put up related numbers with no stress since their group goes nowhere or their position is just not in jeopardy, however Harper is underneath stress to supply, as a result of if he doesn’t, the Spurs can merely flip to Fox or Fortress for extra minutes.
If Harper has one weak point, it’s his 3-point taking pictures. Virtually all of his makes an attempt are open to wide-open, making league common effectivity with 4-6 ft of house, however solely 31.2 % with six ft or more room. Spurs followers mustn’t fear about this being a long run downside as a result of he works arduous, and Chip Engelland’s secret sauce has been carefully replicated by the group. For now, he can give attention to turning into a screener after a handoff if opponents scheme him out by daring him to shoot, which can assist him rack up assists and is an efficient counter by attacking the house.
There’s solely seven video games left within the common season, so it’s uncertain anybody will be taught something new from the crop of children at this level. However we so know who Rookie Harper, and he’s earned himself an A- on my scale. The scary factor for the remainder of the league is he has far more room to develop.
