My good friend Trevor joined my agency in 2020, within the midst of the pandemic. When he was employed, the top of his division despatched me a observe saying “Hey Lee, I obtained you a basketball participant!” It seems that Trevor performed D-1 ball at Farleigh Dickinson, began most video games as a sophomore and began each sport in his junior and senior years. Second-team all convention and workforce captain. (All this info got here from the workforce’s web site, not from Trevor.) So sure, the top of Trevor’s division actually “obtained me a basketball participant.”
Trevor turned the primary D-1 hooper on the agency since Bob Bennett, who began at ahead (reverse Billy Cunningham) on Dean Smith’s first North Carolina workforce. That is how way back that was: Bob was drafted by the Knicks out of faculty however determined to as an alternative go to regulation college as a result of being a lawyer was extra profitable than taking part in within the NBA (within the Sixties). After a really profitable profession as a probate litigator and throughout good man, Bob is now retired. When he retired, Bob moved from L.A. to … simply outdoors San Antonio. Go Spurs.
Again to Trevor. I instantly reached out to him when he joined the agency. We then met at an out of doors basketball court docket – the most effective we may do in the course of the lockdown. As a result of he was employed over Zoom, as many have been in 2020, I used to be the primary particular person on the agency to satisfy Trevor in particular person. We competed within the varied taking pictures contests I had invented in the course of the pandemic, as recounted right here. A kind of contests I name “Most in a Row.” I knew I used to be in bother when Trevor made 26 jumpers in a row from about 16 ft out in the best wing. Sure, 26 consecutive mid-range jumpers. (He gained that contest.)
We later competed in different sports activities, together with golf. After we have been {golfing} final weekend, Trevor requested me after I could be doing my Western Convention over and below predictions – he stated he at all times loved them. Upon studying that a minimum of one particular person enjoys these predictions, right here they’re.
Just a few preliminary ideas. I’ve historically tried to have an excellent stability between the variety of groups I predict to exceed their projections and people I predict gained’t. Nevertheless, that stability is just essential in a closed system, which the Western Convention just isn’t – the groups additionally get to play groups within the Japanese Convention. This season specifically, it’s actually attainable that extra Western Convention groups exceed expectations as a result of they get to play a bunch of video games towards the East.
Additionally, I attempt to not give attention to whether or not a specific workforce is “good” or “dangerous.” The query is whether or not that workforce shall be “gooder” or “badder” than the Las Vegas consensus.
Lastly, please don’t take these predictions to expire and place bets with Fan Duel or every other betting platform you might use. Whereas I can’t assure the accuracy of my predictions, I can assure that counting on them is a nasty concept. Actually don’t count on me to be proper 26 occasions in a row like Trevor was from the best wing, 16 ft out.
With these disclaimers out of the best way, these are my preseason predictions as to which Western Convention groups will and gained’t exceed the win complete the oldsters in Vegas have projected for them. I hope you get pleasure from this as a lot as Trevor has prior to now.
Let’s begin on the prime, based mostly on the 2024-2025 common season.
Final season’s wins: 68Vegas over/below: 62.5
OKC’s 2024-25 common season was one for the ages. The Thunder outscored opponents by 12.9 factors per sport, breaking the file set by the 1971-72 Lakers, who went 69-13 and gained all of it. Put one other manner, the Thunder’s win complete final season may need been a bit low based mostly on their level differential. And so they have everybody again from final season. Their prime eight gamers in minutes per sport have been all 26 or youthful. Their third finest participant, Chet Holmgren, performed in solely 32 video games. Nonetheless, Vegas has them successful 5.5 video games much less this season. Sorry, I simply don’t see it. Whereas the Thunder may not win 68 video games once more, they simply would possibly – and even when they don’t, the Thunder will most likely come shut. OVER
Final season’s wins: 52Vegas over/below: 55.5
The Rockets shocked lots of people by ending second within the West final season, however six groups completed inside 4 wins of the Rockets’ 52 wins. Two of those groups wound up within the Play-In Tourney. Three of the highest Rockets in minutes per sport final yr gained’t play for this season’s workforce: Fred VanFleet simply suffered a season-ending ACL harm, whereas Jaylen Inexperienced and Dillon Brooks have been traded. After all, the man these two have been traded for is why Vegas initiatives that the Rockets will win three extra video games this yr: Kevin Durant. As a second “after all,” KD is 37 years outdated – or, as announcers prefer to say, 37 years of age. (Anybody else discover that?) KD has 1,000,000 miles on his skinny legs (stats not official). Whereas I count on KD to be glorious once more, I don’t count on him to play 60 video games. With KD more likely to miss a bunch of video games and VanFleet out for the season, the Rockets appear unlikely to have sufficient point-guard play and three-point taking pictures to win extra video games than the 52 they gained final season, not to mention the 56 wins wanted to be an “over.” UNDER
Final season’s wins: 50Vegas over/below: 47.5
OK, let me get this straight. The Lakers changed Jaxon Hayes with Deandre Ayton, they may have Luca Doncic for all the season – and Luca misplaced 20 kilos of child fats from the man who averaged 28/8/8 whereas fats – they usually nonetheless have Lebron James. The Lakers went 18-10 with Luca on the workforce. And Vegas has them 2.5 video games worse. Despite the fact that the Lakers is not going to have a plus defender of their beginning line-up, I nonetheless see them matching final yr’s file. That makes the Lakers an OVER.
Final season’s wins: 50Vegas over/below: 53.5
My earlier evaluation of the Nuggets’ low season nonetheless applies: “The Nuggets pulled off the equal of a 3 for one deal. They shipped the enigmatic (and overpaid) Michael Porter, Jr. for a man who might be nearly as good as him and is actually cheaper – Cam Johnson. So that you don’t should look it up, MPJ averaged 18-7-2 whereas taking pictures 40% from three. Johnson averaged 19-4-3 for the Nets, and shot 39% from three (with out Joker dropping dimes to him). . . . The cash the Nuggets saved from that commerce allowed them to carry again Bruce Brown, a vital part of the Nuggets’ championship workforce. In addition they traded the participant who was once Dario Saric for an precise back-up heart in Jonas Valanciunas.” Not talked about in that abstract was the Nuggets’ pick-up of stable veteran Tim Hardaway, Jr. The Nuggets took OKC to seven video games, even with all of the warts on final season’s workforce – together with Aaron Gordon straining a hamstring in Recreation Six. One other OVER.
Final season’s wins: 50Vegas over/below: 48.5
Just like the Nuggets, the Clippers pulled off the equal of a 3 for one deal in the course of the low season, giving up Norman Powell, getting Bradley Beal, a Lopez brother, and John Collins. Beforehand I wrote: ”I don’t count on to see any drop-off for the Clippers this season, they usually have a sensible shot at being higher.”
However I wrote that earlier than Kawhi-gate. Whereas I don’t count on the NBA to void Kawhi’s contract, the league may actually droop him for vital time. The Clippers may not thoughts that end result if Kawhi is more energizing for the playoffs. However that chance permits me to regulate my earlier common season prediction to UNDER. This additionally permits me to proceed to root towards the Clippers, a hallowed household custom. I sit up for the emails from my buddies who’re Clippers followers calling me a hater. Convey it on! UNDER, UNDER, UNDER
Final season’s wins: 49Vegas over/below: 50.5
The Vegas projection of an improved win complete for the T’Wolves shocked me. The one vital change from final season was the lack of beneficial rotation wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Whereas Anthony Edwards could present some enchancment (he’s already nice), Michael Conley and Rudy Gobert are more likely to fade a bit. (Gobert is not going to repeat as Defensive Participant of the 12 months as a result of, properly, you recognize.) I don’t see the T’Wolves bettering on final season’s win complete, which makes them an UNDER.
Final season’s wins: 48Vegas over/below: 45.5
Whereas the Vegas projection for Minnesota shocked me for being excessive, I really feel the other concerning the Warriors’ projection. The workforce went 30-11 after selecting up Jimmy Butler in the course of final season. In the event you do the mathematics (and even in case you don’t), that initiatives to a 60 win tempo for a whole season. It additionally looks like the Jonathan Kuminga scenario labored out OK for everybody with the compromise two-year deal for many cash. If the mid-30’s threesome of Draymond, Steph, and Jimmy keep comparatively wholesome, the Warriors would possibly truly be fairly good. I’ve the W’s as a powerful OVER.
Final season’s wins: 48Vegas over/below: 40.5
One other workforce that obtained worse over the summer season. The Grizzlies traded key starter Desmond Bane for a bunch of future draft picks. If I perceive how future draft picks work, the Grizzlies gained’t be capable to play any of them this season, which is presumably why Vegas initiatives a 7.5 win drop-off this season. However that’s nonetheless primarily a .500 file, which is optimistic within the improved Western Convention. Extra importantly, are there any Grizzly Bears in Tennessee? Memphis ought to change the workforce identify to the Blues. Until they do, UNDER.
Final season’s wins: 40Vegas over/below: 35.5
As the massive low season transfer to make the Kings related once more, they signed Dennis Schroeder to a big three-year contract. Uh, OK. Only for the enjoyable of it, I requested AI concerning the Kings’ low season, and was informed this: “The Kings are thought of a primary vacation spot totally free agent Russell Westbrook, however a logjam at guard and a must resolve contracts for gamers like Malik Monk or Devin Carter could should be addressed first.” I suppose that’s the reason they name it “synthetic” intelligence. Yeah, UNDER.
After all, the Kings would possibly simply do away with Monk and Carter with the intention to signal Westbrook. If that occurs: WAY UNDER
Final season’s wins: 39Vegas over/below: 39.5
The Mavs are the one workforce that final season’s wins don’t inform us a lot about what to anticipate from this season. Vegas then goes out and initiatives that the Mavs may have the identical variety of wins as they’d final yr. Final yr, the Mavs had heavy Luca, traded him for Often Injured Anthony Davis, who instantly obtained injured. I heard from considered one of my basketball buddies that FI-AD then did the reverse Luca weight loss program, placing on 20 kilos. ”All muscle?” I requested. Basketball buddy: ”Nope.” The Mavs additionally completely lucked into Cooper Flagg, and Kyrie Irving could return across the All-Star break to utterly disrupt no matter offense the Mavs had been operating earlier than Kyrie’s return. Possibly Vegas simply punted on this prediction and stated “Hell, we don’t know. What did they win final yr?” I’ll do the identical. As a result of 39 is lower than 39.5: UNDER
Final season’s wins: 36Vegas over/below: 31.5
With their dynamic trio of KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, the 2024-25 Suns have been a preferred sleeper choose. The pundits (SAT phrase!) have been partially appropriate. The Suns sleep-walked by way of the season, fired their coach for the fourth time in 4 years, traded away KD, and acquired out Beal. Within the KD commerce, they picked up gamers who play the identical place as Booker, their remaining star, who could also be traded as a part of this wacky rebuild. The Suns hope to be boring, as a result of the choice is being horrible. Being good just isn’t one of many out there choices. UNDER
Final season’s wins: 36Vegas over/below: 34.5
The Blazers added two of my favourite gamers, bringing again franchise icon Damian Lillard and buying and selling for nice teammate Jrue Vacation. Sadly, Dame is out for the season, and Vacation is fading as a participant (although not as a teammate). The Blazers additionally dumped awful teammate Deandre Ayton, that means that their locker room must be a greater place. Sadly for the workforce from my birthplace, the locker room just isn’t the place the basketball video games are performed. So whereas the Blazers can hope that their younger gamers proceed to enhance, the Western Convention is a troublesome place to study on the job with out sufficient expertise to meaningfully enhance. Though the Blazers may enhance, I might not guess any cash on it (or anything). I may also not predict something aside from UNDER.
Final season’s wins: 34Vegas over/below: 43.5
I had forgotten that final season’s Spurs beat out solely two Western Convention groups – the Jazz and the Pelicans. Shedding your finest participant in February tends to harm a workforce’s win complete. As a result of that participant is again, and excellent, and for different causes everybody studying this is aware of about, Vegas has projected the Spurs to enhance extra in 2025-26 than each different workforce besides one (a workforce which we now have not but talked about). Who am I to disagree? I’m additionally contractually obligated to say OVER, and I do know higher than to breach my contract earlier than “the powers that be” determine on my Christmas bonus. OVER, OVER, OVER
Final season’s wins: 21Vegas over/below: 30.5
Bear in mind when the Pelicans’ group was the envy of the NBA? Me neither. Nevertheless, I do keep in mind when many people thought that this was a workforce on a transparent upward path, led by Zion Williamson and a bunch of gifted younger gamers. Properly, Zion “led” the Pelicans to 21 wins final yr. Zion performed solely 30 video games all season, whereas ex-Spur Dejounte Murray performed in just one extra sport than Zion. The Pelicans had solely two gamers who performed in additional than 56 video games, and I guess you can not identify them. When you have even heard of them, good for you. Yves Missi (not associated to Lionel Messi) performed in 73 video games, averaging 9.1 PPG. A man named Jeremiah Robinson-Earl performed in 66 video games, averaging 6.3 ppg. And other people say I don’t do any analysis earlier than writing these. The Pelicans must be more healthy this yr, although that could be a very low bar. Will improved well being result in an enchancment by greater than 9 wins? UNDER
Final season’s wins: 17Vegas over/below: 18.5
Vegas has massive hopes for Utah. BIG HOPES. How massive? One or two extra wins, regardless that it’s tough to solely win 17 or 18 video games with an 82 sport schedule – 41 of that are residence video games. If the Jazz lose each street sport, they solely must go 17- 24 at residence to match final yr’s win complete. And a few of these street video games shall be towards Japanese Convention groups. The Jazz should ship their 2026 first-round choose to the Thunder if the choose lands outdoors the highest eight. If it lands inside the highest eight, Utah will maintain that first-rounder and would now not owe Oklahoma Metropolis any draft choose. I’m not a draft lottery professional, however I’m fairly positive that groups with a projected file just like the Jazz can’t fall out of the highest eight picks, it doesn’t matter what occurs with the ping-pong balls. If the Jazz begin taking part in properly, Danny Ainge will put the kibosh on that. The Jazz will get their choose, however I nonetheless assume they are going to be OVER 18.5 wins. However barely.
I simply counted my predictions. Six over, 9 below. No manner that shall be proper.
Trevor, I hope you loved this!
