Basketball specialists and followers are universally choosing the Spurs because the crew most certainly to make the leap from the lottery to a 2026 playoff participant. Many causes assist this, together with one other season of enchancment from Victor Wembanyama, a full yr of Victor on the ground with De’Arron Fox, gifted younger guards Stephon Fortress and Dylan Harper, and a real back-up 5 in Luke Kornet.
Nonetheless, for the Spurs to make the playoffs this season, a minimum of considered one of final yr’s playoff contributors should drop off. However once I look across the good groups within the Western Convention, I ask myself – did they really all get higher? I’d really feel loads higher concerning the Spurs’ probabilities of leaping into the playoffs if the crew performed within the Jap Convention, the place high groups just like the Celtics, Pacers, and Bucks suffered accidents that may take away a few of their greatest gamers from the roster this yr. Certainly, the Bucks eliminated Damian Lillard from their roster eternally by doing that unusual “minimize and prolong” factor. The Celtics misplaced Jayson Tatum and traded away Jrue Vacation and Kristaps Porzingis. The Pacers misplaced two starters – Tyrese Haliburton to damage and Myles Turner to free company. All three groups will certainly take an enormous step backward.
Not so within the West, particularly after we have a look at the highest 5 groups from final season. Let’s begin on the high with the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder. Whereas the Thunder’s low season didn’t end in any vital new gamers, they’ll have two gamers getting back from damage – Jaylin Williams and Nikola Subject. After all, the Thunder don’t have to get higher. That they had a traditionally dominant common season and had been absolutely seasoned by a a lot harder run via the playoffs than anybody anticipated. So regardless that the Thunder don’t have to be higher this season than final, they in all probability will likely be.
Final yr’s second place crew, the Rockets, added a generational expertise in Kevin Durant. Whereas KD’s technology is likely to be the earlier one, he remained extraordinarily efficient, averaging 27 factors per recreation, capturing 43% from three and 53% total. And he did that whereas enjoying with the dysfunctional Phoenix Suns. KD have to be thrilled to be again in Texas, enjoying with a well-coached contender surrounded by younger expertise. The Rockets additionally added the versatile Dorian Finney-Smith, an excellent defender who shot 41% from three. The Rockets misplaced younger expertise in Jalen Inexperienced and Cam Whitmore and toughness in Dillon Brooks, however getting KD, if he can keep wholesome, clearly constitutes a short-term acquire for the 2025-26 Rockets.
Residing in Los Angeles, I do know that the LA groups’ followers are excited concerning the off-seasons of the Lakers (third place final yr) and the Clippers (fifth place, however with the identical 50-32 file). The Lakers changed Jaxon Hayes at heart with Deandre Ayton. Regardless that Ayton has been an enormous disappointment since his encouraging early years with the Suns, he’s nonetheless an improve over Hayes. (Anybody can be.) The Lakers additionally added toughness in Marcus Sensible, who can’t defend like he used to, however he’s nonetheless higher than the opposite Laker perimeter defenders – defenders who not embrace Finney-Smith.
The Lakers’ largest acquire would possibly come from a loss: the 20+ kilos purportedly misplaced by Luka Doncic. If a heavy Luka might common 28-8-8, think about what a slimmer, quicker Luca can do. (Eating places and bars in Manhattan Seashore are reducing again on workers on Lakers off-nights.)
The Clippers primarily made a 3 for one commerce. They misplaced Norman Powell, who ought to have made the All-Star crew final season and has gotten higher yearly, however they gained Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Brook Lopez. Whereas the trade didn’t make the Clippers any youthful (stars James Harden and Kawhi Leonard additionally received a yr older, as all of us did), the Clips know they’re in a brief window anyway. I don’t anticipate to see any drop-off for the crew this season, and so they have a sensible shot at being higher. After all, Harden and the Clippers will fold once more within the playoffs, however we’re simply speaking concerning the common season.
Just like the Clippers, the Nuggets (who had been additionally 50-32 final season) pulled off the equal of a 3 for one deal. They shipped the enigmatic (and overpaid) Michael Porter, Jr. for a man who might be pretty much as good as him and is actually cheaper – Cam Johnson. So that you don’t should look it up, MPJ averaged 18-7-2 whereas capturing 40% from three. Johnson averaged 19-4-3 for the Nets (and didn’t have Joker dropping dimes to him). Cam’s wage is $17 million (!) lower than MPJ’s “max contract” (don’t get me began). The cash the Nuggets saved from that commerce allowed them to deliver again Bruce Brown, an important element of the Nuggets’ championship crew. Additionally they traded the participant who was Dario Saric for an precise back-up heart in Jonas Valanciunas. Not solely did the Nuggets get many extra letters within the alphabet onto their crew, however having Valanciunas means they not should fill the non-Joker minutes with the participant who was DeAndre Jordan.
These 5 groups gained 50 or extra video games, 16 or extra wins than the Spurs’ 34. The subsequent three Western Convention groups, Minnesota, Golden State, and Memphis, gained 49, 48, and 48, respectively. Rattling, the West was loaded final yr. Fortunately, these three groups didn’t do a lot to enhance themselves over the low season. Whereas the Warriors picked up Jimmy Butler through the season, their low season has been outlined by the hazy standing of Jonathan Kuminga, the very best younger participant on the crew. If the Warriors lose Kuminga – or his state of affairs turns into a distraction – the W’s could drop again a bit. The Grizzlies misplaced key participant Desmond Bane for a bunch of draft picks that gained’t assist them this season. Additionally they should hope that Ja Morant retains his suspensions and video games misplaced to damage to lower than 20 video games. (I’m taking the over.) The T’Wolves misplaced key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker to the Warmth – a wage cap casualty – and didn’t add anybody.
I began this by asking if all the nice groups within the West received higher. After sifting via all the additions and subtractions, I consider that the highest 5 groups in all probability did enhance. Dallas including Cooper Flagg in all probability makes them higher than they had been on the finish of the season (they misplaced within the Play-In Match after ending 39-43), however not so good as they had been once they had heavy Luka. (Luka was injured and solely performed 22 video games for the Mavs in 2024-25.) The opposite Play-In loser, the Sacramento Kings, have change into the Kings once more – not horrible however undoubtedly not good. Usual Kings.
As a reminder, the highest six groups within the convention make the playoffs, whereas groups within the 7-10 slots have to win a Play-In recreation or two to make it into the ultimate eight. Whereas the 2025-26 Spurs can not realistically anticipate to problem the highest 5 from final yr, they will set their sights on the subsequent three, together with Play-In losers Mavs and Kings.
Let’s intention for that 6-spot. And possibly face the Clippers in Spherical One. Does that sound about proper?
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