The proposed overhaul of Texas’ congressional map is, as demanded by President Donald Trump, designed to offer the GOP 5 new seats in subsequent yr’s midterm election.
However whereas the newly drafted strains would all however guarantee Republicans at the least some pickups, an evaluation of the tentative redistricting plan suggests the GOP is way from assured to web all 5 seats.
The map, for one, depends on census information from 2020 in a state with a quickly rising inhabitants and demographics which might be poised to proceed altering within the years to come back. And whereas the 5 reconfigured districts would have been firmly for Trump in the event that they’d been in place final yr, different latest statewide races would have been way more aggressive — particularly within the midterm years of 2018 and 2022, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke would have carried or narrowly misplaced a number of the new districts in his runs in opposition to Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Greg Abbott.
Nonetheless, the proposal introduced few, if any, alternatives for Democrats to flip the script by focusing on Republican districts — a risk even some GOP incumbents had been girding for forward of the draft map’s launch.
The mid-decade redistricting effort is coming on the behest of Trump’s political operatives, who pressured state leaders to redraw the Texas map to assist pad Republicans’ razor-thin majority within the U.S. Home.
The proposed map targets Democrats in South Texas and round Dallas, Houston and Central Texas. And it does so with out severely jeopardizing any of the 25 districts Republicans already management, dampening the hopes of Democrats who had hoped an aggressive gerrymander might backfire on the GOP and create alternatives to oust a couple of sitting Republicans, significantly in a Trump midterm election yr when the nationwide local weather is predicted to favor Democrats.
“I don’t see any Democratic silver linings right here in any respect,” Odus Evbagharu, the Texas Democratic Social gathering treasurer, mentioned. He argued that the brand new district strains would suppress the facility of voters of shade, including, “From day one, this redistricting course of has been a large number. It’s been damaged, it’s in shambles.”
Nonetheless, whereas the map would pave the way in which for the GOP to regulate as much as 30 of the state’s 38 congressional districts, the 2 seats in South Texas seem like firmly in play for Democratic incumbents Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen, each of whom had been reelected final yr at the same time as Trump carried their districts. The map drawers made these districts only a shade redder, in what quantities to a bet that the get together’s latest historic beneficial properties amongst Hispanic voters — who dominate the citizens in each districts — will stick.
Retaining the three different focused seats could be a far greater attain for Democrats, although specialists mentioned some could possibly be in play in a powerful Democratic yr. That trio of blue districts consists of the ninth Congressional District in Houston, held by Rep. Al Inexperienced; the thirty second District in Dallas and its northern suburbs, represented by freshman Rep. Julie Johnson; and the thirty fifth District, which runs from San Antonio to Austin, held by Rep. Greg Casar.
Every went for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by giant margins final yr and, below the newly proposed strains, would have favored Trump by at the least 10 factors.
Johnson’s district would grow to be untouchable for Democrats, choosing up a number of new brilliant crimson counties east of Dallas. Had the brand new strains been in place for previous elections, statewide Republicans would have carried the district even below probably the most favorable Democratic wave years, resembling in 2018, when the district would have gone for Cruz by about 9 share factors over O’Rourke.
The margins had been much less pronounced in Casar’s newly configured thirty fifth District, which Cruz would have carried by three-tenths of some extent in 2018, and Inexperienced’s ninth District, which might have gone for O’Rourke by 2 share factors below the brand new strains.
All three Democrats condemned the proposed map, with Johnson calling it a “corrupt, racist energy seize” that was made to “rig the sport for Donald Trump.”
Earlier than the draft map was launched, Democratic teams pledged thousands and thousands of {dollars} to recruit candidates and assist their campaigns. Home Majority PAC, which works to elect Home Democrats, introduced a $20 million fund for Texas, whereas Home Majority Ahead — a nonprofit affiliated with the PAC — spent cash on advertisements in a handful of GOP districts in obvious anticipation that these seats would grow to be extra aggressive below a brand new map.
The plan didn’t seem to go away any room for Democratic pickups. Whereas many Republican incumbents had reliably crimson voters shifted out of their districts, the map was crafted so that each current GOP district would have voted for Trump by at the least 15 share factors.
“There’s no Republican in Congress who has been frolicked to dry by this map, so provided that, it appears to be like like there may be some vital upside for Republicans,” Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist College, mentioned. “It might take a fairly large blue wave in 2026 to imperil any of the Republican incumbents.”
With their prospects in any other case bleak, Democrats are hopeful that Cuellar and Gonzalez might hold on by persevering with to buck tendencies on the prime of the ticket.
Gonzalez was additionally the sufferer of GOP redistricting efforts in 2021, when state lawmakers accredited new maps that tilted the fifteenth Congressional District — a longtime Democratic seat Gonzalez represented on the time — in favor of the GOP. Gonzalez jumped ship to run within the neighboring thirty fourth District in 2022, which he has represented ever since.
That seat, which at the moment stretches from Brownsville up the state’s southeastern coast to Kingsville, adopted the development that swept South Texas in 2024, with Trump carrying the district by greater than 4 share factors. Gonzalez narrowly gained reelection by 2.6 share factors.
The split-ticket voting was much more pronounced in Cuellar’s district, the place the so-called King of Laredo — an anti-abortion Democrat seen as one among his get together’s most average members in Congress — overcame a federal indictment and Trump’s 7-point benefit in his district to win reelection by greater than 5 factors.
If Cuellar, who’s scheduled to go to trial on the bribery and cash laundering prices in September, can escape his authorized woes, operatives and analysts price the district as a possible tossup.
“He’s an unimaginable performer, given how a lot the district has modified,” mentioned Kyle Kondik, an election analyst on the College of Virginia Heart for Politics, whereas noting Cuellar’s authorized baggage.
Below the brand new strains, Trump would have carried each Gonzalez and Cuellar’s districts by about 10 share factors. In a midterm election, which often sees decrease charges of voter turnout and usually punishes the get together in energy, specialists say each have a shot at holding their seats.
Gonzalez’s path could also be tougher. Below the proposed map, his district would lose acquainted territory in Hidalgo County and tackle extra right-leaning voters in Nueces County.
In an announcement, Gonzalez pledged to struggle the brand new map electorally and in courtroom, however he acknowledged the issue of defending a extra GOP-friendly district.
“The newly proposed TX-34, below the Republicans’ outrageously gerrymandered map, is a blatant Trump-rigged district,” he mentioned. “After they know they will’t win, they cheat!”
Cuellar, in the meantime, misplaced voters within the San Antonio area however took again a portion of Hidalgo County that he as soon as represented below earlier maps. Democrats have a latest historical past of success below the brand new boundaries: Democrat Joe Biden would have gained it by virtually 10 factors in 2020, and O’Rourke by a whopping 32 factors within the 2018 Senate race.
The district’s electoral historical past is proof of how quickly Latino voters in South Texas have shifted to the suitable. However Cuellar, a Laredo establishment, has routinely withstood that development.
A spokesperson for his marketing campaign was far more muted than different Texas Democrats in an announcement — and listed a bunch of conservative-coded points that talk to why Cuellar has been in a position to win over Trump voters.
“Rep. Cuellar understands the communities that he represents and so they belief his expertise delivering outcomes,” the spokesperson mentioned. “He appears to be like ahead to persevering with to serve the folks of South Texas in Congress and advancing the problems that matter most to them — together with strengthening border safety, defending American oil and fuel, securing assets for rural communities and supporting farmers and ranchers.”
Disclosure: Southern Methodist College has been a monetary supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan information group that’s funded partially by donations from members, foundations and company sponsors. Monetary supporters play no function within the Tribune’s journalism. Discover a full listing of them right here.
This text initially appeared in The Texas Tribune, a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and interesting Texans on state politics and coverage.
