It’s virtually time for the NBA draft lottery, and whereas the San Antonio Spurs are out of the operating within the postseason, they most actually should not in terms of the ping-ponging of lottery balls.
Clearly each Spurs fan could be overjoyed to land the highest decide within the draft after a misplaced and medical-condition-filled common season, they usually do have a mixed 7%(ish) likelihood at touchdown the all-but-guaranteed first decide within the compelling Cooper Flagg, however with 13 different groups within the combine, there are quite a lot of attainable winners, so let’s check out a few of them.
The next represents my utterly unbiased power-ranking of a number of totally different draft lottery eventualities. For the sake of brevity I’m solely going to rank the highest 5 (and an honorable point out) of every class.
First, let’s check out the precise team-by-team odds, in keeping with regular-season document:
Utah Jazz (17-65 document in 2024-25), 14%
Washington Wizards (18-64), 14%
Charlotte Hornets (19-63), 14%
New Orleans Pelicans (21-61), 12.5%
Philadelphia 76ers* (24-58), 10.5%
Brooklyn Nets (26-56), 9%
Toronto Raptors (30-52), 7.5%
San Antonio Spurs (34-48), 6%
Phoenix Suns (36-46), 3.8% (decide goes to Houston Rockets through commerce with Brooklyn Nets)
Portland Path Blazers (36-46), 3.7%
Dallas Mavericks (39-43), 1.8%
Chicago Bulls (39-43), 1.7%
Sacramento** (40-42), .8%
Atlanta (40-42), .7% (decide goes to San Antonio Spurs)
*Choose could also be conveyed to Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder (Prime 6 Protected)
**Choose could also be conveyed to Atlanta Hawks (Prime 12 Protected)
Reminder that the draft lottery course of consists of a number of drawings to find out the primary 4 picks within the NBA draft. The rest of the lottery groups will choose in positions 5 by way of 14 in inverse order of their information on the finish of the common season.
There are 1,001 attainable combos when 4 balls are drawn out of 14, with out regard to their order of choice, so mainly a real-life Dumb and Dumber quote delivered to life.
And although a consultant from an outdoor accounting agency oversees your entire course of, and nobody outdoors of the room is knowledgeable of the lottery outcomes forward of time, that hasn’t stopped NBA followers from developing with quite a lot of conspiracy theories, going all the best way again to the very first NBA lottery.
So, with all that in thoughts, let’s strap in and have a look at some prospects!
The ‘Who truly deserves it?’ rankings
I have a tendency to seek out myself aligned with Unforgiven’s William Munny on this one, deserve’s acquired nothing to do with it. Tanking feels distasteful, dropping carries no actual ethical implication, everybody’s grasping and thankless, and there’s actually no cause that dangerous luck needs to be rewarded. Nonetheless, for argument’s sake:
Honorable Point out: Dallas Mavericks (Followers) — Let’s get one factor straight, I don’t just like the Mavs. I don’t like their uniforms, I don’t like their mouthy former proprietor, and my hatred of them post-2006 Western Convention Semifinals was solely enhanced by the truth that they then choked away their shot on the Spurs’ 2006 championship just like the chumps they’re. Nonetheless, I don’t assume I’ve ever felt so dangerous for the followers of any sports activities staff like I do Dallas Mavericks followers after the asinine Luke Doncic commerce. As such, I’m okay-ish with them successful the primary decide, on the situation that they run Nico Harrison out of city on a rail first.
5. Utah Jazz — As a lot as I dislike the Mavericks, a minimum of that they had a participant or two that I used to be keen on (shout-out to Dirk Nowitzki for taking down LeBron James and the Heatles), or a minimum of didn’t detest. I preferred Jerry Sloan, and I revered John Stockton’s grit, however they’re a minimum of one elbow to David Robinson’s head away from me being cool with them successful the primary decide. This rating is solely consultant of how devoted they had been to their tank. It’s the worst Utah Jazz staff ever, and it’s not even shut. Technically, they’ve earned it, I assume.
4. Washington Wizards — Anybody who’s nonetheless rooting for this staff in spite of everything these years deserves one thing. Whether or not it’s the primary decide, or to be studied in a lab for his or her remainder of their lives is worthy of debate. This is able to be for the dude who’s nonetheless rocking a Larry Hughes jersey in entrance of his TV. Or for the outdated head who nonetheless talks about how superb an outlet passer Wes Unseld was in-person. Nonetheless a 50/50 likelihood that they need to be dedicated to a psychological care facility although.
3. Portland Path Blazers — At this level their draft historical past has develop into a little bit of a punch line. Greg Oden? Sam Bowie?? LaRue Martin??? I imply, this franchise simply can not catch a break/get out of their very own method. Additionally, they get bonus factors for not tanking in addition to they might have. Can’t rank them first although as a result of 1) They’ve already had the primary decide 4(!) occasions and a couple of) There’s all the time an opportunity they’ll do one thing silly and take a participant aside from Flagg. These individuals simply can’t be trusted!
2. Charlotte Hornets — This model of the Hornets have by no means landed the primary decide within the draft, as their on-line cohort is simply too completely happy to remind everybody. Technically the earlier model did, however that was again in 1991. It’s fairly controversial that they’ve overdue, and I’m theoretically in favor of this if it ensures that Hornets followers don’t lose their staff to relocation a second time. Additionally, how humorous wouldn’t it be in the event that they had been to land the primary decide proper after Michael Jordan bought the staff?
1. San Antonio Spurs — This is able to not be a preferred end result outdoors of this weblog, however I encourage different fan-bases to consider how unlucky a season the Spurs simply had. Their famous person went down with a blot clot. They misplaced the best coach in staff (and presumably NBA) historical past in a less-than-ideal method. They missed the postseason for a franchise document sixth straight season. Am I successful you over? No? Effectively, it was price a shot.
The ‘What’s finest for Cooper Flagg?’ rankings
Honorable Point out: New Orleans Pelicans — This rating is sort of totally for the meals. Flagg’s going to wish to place a little bit weight on that body, and New Orleans is arguably probably the most delectable locale to do this in. We’ve already seen the impact it’s had on Zion. Nonetheless, there’s additionally an opportunity that pairing Flagg with Zion may very well be an actual drawback for the remainder of the Southwest Division, and I simply can not root for that end result.
5. Utah Jazz — The Jazz are positively not as dangerous as their document signifies. They’re often a reasonably steady and competent franchise. They’ve a devoted (albeit pathological) fan-base. And so they have a championship architect in Danny Ainge operating issues. Alternatively, Mormons.
4. Philadelphia 76’ers — In idea, this staff could be stacked. However I for one would by no means want Philadelphia sports activities followers on Cooper Flagg. We’re speaking concerning the sort of followers who cheer career-ending accidents and boo Santa Claus. He looks as if a pleasant child. He deserves higher.
3. Houston Rockets — Completely not. I don’t care how good that staff is, nothing good can come from dwelling in disease-riddled swampland. It’s the primary metropolis for human trafficking in the US. The one actual upside could be the dearth of state tax, however there are different cites that might provide that…
2. Toronto Raptors — The Raptors are one other staff that’s higher than their document, they usually’d immediately be a handful within the front-court in the event that they added Flagg to the duo of Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes. Flagg could be the proper complement to a staff that’s lengthy at seemingly each place, however wants some scoring together with their rim protection, and he’d immediately be elevated to Canadian hero standing for a fan-base that’s notoriously well mannered. It’s an undeniably tender touchdown, but it surely does imply dwelling in Canada, and being paid in a forex generally often known as the Loonie. Yikes.
1. San Antonio Spurs — We’re speaking about attending to staff up with some of the freakish skills round in Victor Wembanyama, a roster higher than their win complete that will be their third straight NBA rookie of the 12 months award. Throw in a franchise identified for safeguarding their participant’s privateness and treating them like household, a fan-base that’s each educated and affected person, and all the advantages of dwelling in Texas. Flagg could be set as much as be a part of a staff that might dominate the NBA for a decade-plus, may select precisely the extent of group engagement he needs, and he’s already proven a passion for town and staff amenities. The one draw back could be not getting coached by Gregg Popovich, but it surely seems like he’ll nonetheless be within the constructing.
The Break the Web/Tin Foil Hat Energy Rankings
Honorable Point out: Washington Wizards — This wouldn’t tip the scales in both class alone, but when the Wizards land what could be an NBA document seventh primary decide, you may anticipate some grumbling on the web about it, and perhaps even some conspiracy-adjacent speak. Whatever the degree of concern, there’s no query that the jokes would completely be flying.
5. Sacramento Kings — This is able to be all concerning the pure shock issue. The Kings have a slim 3.8% likelihood of touchdown within the Prime 4 and getting to maintain their decide, however they’ve only a .8% likelihood of touchdown the highest decide, and you may anticipate the web to blow up in the event that they do. These could be the bottom odds to take the primary decide for the reason that Cavaliers had a 1.7% likelihood in 2014, and would prime the document of 1.52% set by the Magic again in 1993. The sheer improbability could be sufficient to set the web on fireplace, however like with the Wizards, the memes would rain down in equal measure for one of many NBA’s most unlucky franchises.
4. Philadelphia 76ers — It’s exhausting to know the place to put this one, as a result of the outrage and web site visitors may go various methods. The Sixers have adequate odds for an excessive amount of tin foil hatting, however this might result in all the things from a uncommon peaceable night time in Philly, to commerce rumors, contract rumors, and mainly any rumor involving Joel Embiid and Paul George. With gamers like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Kevin Durant doubtlessly on the commerce market as effectively, I’m guessing this is able to begin many an web knife-fight over the subsequent a number of months.
3. Houston Rockets — Okay, now we’re entering into some actually contentious territory. The Rockets received 52 video games this season, and ended up the 2nd seed within the Western Convention. Nobody goes to be completely happy to see a staff with that document win the primary decide. And for the reason that Rocket’s solely have 3.8% likelihood through a commerce with Phoenix, it’s simply fluky sufficient to gasoline some severe conspiracy tweeting. Give it some thought. The Suns need to commerce Kevin Durant, and are in search of main draft compensation. The Rockets want a scorer within the mould of Kevin Durant, and maintain Phoenix’s draft decide. Kevin Durant needs to go to a successful staff and occurs to be from Texas? Theories of a league machination just about write themselves. Particularly after an inexplicable commerce made earlier this season by the…
2. Dallas Mavericks — I had actual difficultly selecting between this and the primary on this checklist, and I’m nonetheless unsure it shouldn’t be an outright tie, however the Dallas Mavericks touchdown the primary decide within the draft after buying and selling away their franchise famous person for a baffling commerce return would remember to check Twitter/X’s server capability. This is able to a be an virtually good melding of tin foil hats and on-line outrage because the Mavericks have a 1.8% likelihood of touchdown the highest decide within the draft, considerably mirroring the conspiracy speak round Cleveland’s luck again in 2014, solely tripled in furor/confusion/consternation. Add into the equation that Maverick’s GM/Public Enemy Nico Harrison continues to be employed in Dallas, and there’s no method this dialog doesn’t rage uncontrolled and much past the bounds of human decency. For instance: are you able to think about what would occur if Harrison then turned proper round and traded that decide in a win now transfer?! It looks like an actual chance.
1. San Antonio Spurs — Look, I don’t know break this to y’all, however the Spurs should not precisely beloved league-wide. They made quite a lot of enemies of their twenty years of rivalry, and touchdown Victor Wembanyama didn’t reduce the cacophony of hatred. This end result could be rage-bait within the excessive. You’re speaking concerning the Spurs successful the no-doubt primary decide twice in three years, one way or the other managing to skip the 12 months and not using a potential franchise icon, and doing it with lower than a 7% likelihood within the lottery? That Wemby went down with a blood clot, and Gregg Popovich with a stroke would solely add to the thought of league sympathy, or that the league needs to construct round Wemby as the brand new face of the league. And heaven forbid the Spurs one way or the other land Cooper Flagg with Atlanta’s .7% likelihood. No less than there could be some measure of empathy for Mavericks’ followers in the event that they landed it. However for a San Antonio franchise that seems from the skin to be perpetually blessed, this is able to be nothing lower than a declaration of conflict on the happiness of NBA followers at giant. If this goes down, put together to be despised at a degree that solely the Heatles and Durant-era-Warriors can examine to.
That’s all I’ve acquired for now. If you wish to provide you with personal energy rankings within the feedback, be happy. I’m positive there are eventualities I haven’t even thought of.
