The Cavs have held the league’s greatest file for a lot of the season, till lately.
After rattling off their second 15+ sport successful streak this 12 months, Cleveland has gone 4-5 since, together with a four-game dropping streak. It’s by no means a great signal to wrestle just some weeks earlier than the playoffs begin, however on the identical time, this might simply be brought on by the doldrums of a protracted season — the 2022 Warriors and 2023 Nuggets additionally went by related stretches earlier than storming their strategy to championships.
So, is that this one thing, or nothing? As traditional, the reply lies someplace in between.
How regarding is Cleveland’s latest slide?
The only rationalization for the Cavs’ latest struggles is their capturing luck lastly working out. Since their successful streak was snapped on March sixteenth, opponents have shot 39.7% from three in opposition to them — the Ninth-highest mark league-wide over that span. Extra worryingly, their very own percentages have plummeted, as Cleveland’s making simply 33.5% of their makes an attempt, rating twenty sixth. The Cavs have been sure to drop off sooner or later provided that they have been making an absurd 39.5% of their three up till that time (1st), and no crew has shot over 40% for the reason that COVID-shortened seasons.
Surprisingly, opponents made 36.4% of their threes up till that March sixteenth cut-off, which ranked fifteenth. Provided that groups usually don’t have a lot management over defending the three, Cleveland sustaining a top-10 protection all through the season whereas not receiving opponent capturing luck is a testomony to their sturdy protection, and it signifies that they will proceed successful even when pictures are falling in opposition to them. In different phrases, the Cavs’ success relies extra on their very own percentages — one thing that they will management.
With that stated, I doubt Cleveland can get again to placing up historic offensive numbers. Their capturing has already taken an inevitable dip, however the latest struggles of Donovan Mitchell are much more regarding. In March, DMitch has averaged simply 22.4 factors on 36.3/21.3/84 splits, and he missed a couple of video games earlier within the month attributable to a groin harm. Since returning, he has lacked a few of his traditional bounce, which was most evident in a latest sport in opposition to Phoenix when he solely put up 7 factors. There have been a number of cases of DMitch struggling to blow previous defenders who he usually dusts, and ones during which the Cavs have been looking on purposefully.
Impressively, the Cavs’ offensive ranking throughout this stretch has nonetheless been 119.7, good for eighth within the league. DMitch has scored a mixed 87 factors on 29/61 capturing prior to now three video games as nicely to squash a number of the harm issues we had beforehand. With that in thoughts, Cleveland’s assault ought to stay elite, particularly after their capturing comes again round.
Sadly, their protection doesn’t have as rosy of an outlook. The Cavs’ alarming 118.9 DRTG ranks twenty first over this stretch, and it’s not simply the reason for poor opponent capturing luck. Slightly, Cavs followers have been getting flashbacks to their playoff sequence in opposition to the Knicks a couple of years in the past when Cleveland was dominated on the glass, as they’re ranked final within the league since March sixteenth in defensive rebounding, grabbing simply 66.3% of their very own boards.
Given their propensity to play two bigs, how might this be? Nicely, opposing groups have began attacking Evan Mobley extra on the perimeter — not as a result of he’s a straightforward goal, however reasonably to isolate Jarrett Allen within the paint.
That was on full show of their latest loss in opposition to the Clippers, when Ivica Zubac dominated the paint by racking up 28 factors and 20 rebounds. LA constantly pulled Mobley out of the paint to present Zubac a neater time across the basket, just like the play proven under.
Even with Allen guarding the rim, Huge Zu had no downside grabbing offensive rebounds and scoring in opposition to him within the put up.
With that in thoughts, it’s not a shock to see the Cavs permitting 66.5% capturing (fifteenth) inside 4 toes of the rim throughout this stretch, once they have been first league-wide (61.7%) prior. That latter quantity remains to be extra indicative of Cleveland’s expertise degree given the bigger pattern measurement, however this skid additionally reveals that the Cavs can nonetheless be exploited by measurement on the inside.
All in all, I’m not involved by Cleveland’s play of late. They’ve nonetheless been a top-10 offense whereas capturing unsustainably poor and concurrently enduring DMitch’s worst stretch of the 12 months — one thing he’s pulling out of. There are some extra crimson flags on protection, however exterior of Boston, no different crew within the East is proficient sufficient to beat the Cavs even when their poor rebounding and inside toughness is exploited.
Cleveland stays a top-tier contender, albeit one which’s barely under the extent of the Celtics and Thunder.
Playoff seeding: the wild wild West and boring boring East
West
Outdoors of the primary seed, the remainder of the West remains to be up for grabs.
The Rockets have a 1.5 sport lead on the Nuggets for the 2-seed, who, in flip, have a 1.5 sport lead on the Lakers for the 3-seed. All three groups are within the top-10 for hardest remaining energy of schedule, however I’m assured that Houston and Denver will stay of their present positions given how they’ve performed lately.
The Lakers, nonetheless, are in a extra precarious place. They’ve struggled even with LeBron returning lately, and so they have two video games remaining in opposition to the Rockets and Thunder each. A sport behind them are the Grizzlies, who simply fired Taylor Jenkins for some inexplicable cause whereas Golden State’s been nipping at their heels, trailing by simply half a sport. Given the types of these three groups, I’d wager on the Warriors to complete because the 4 seed, and this upcoming week will decide that: Golden State is ready to play in opposition to Memphis, LA, and Denver all within the span of simply 4 nights.
Within the play-in, the Wolves are a sport behind the Warriors whereas the Clippers are 1.5 video games again. Each groups have surged lately and their energy of schedule is comparatively straightforward in comparison with the opposite groups. It’s not inconceivable for one in every of them to sneak into the highest six on the expense of a crew like Memphis. The Grizzlies and Wolves play as soon as extra as nicely, and that match could possibly be an important sport of each their seasons.
In the meantime, the underside of the play-in is just about set, because the Mavs and Kings have these spots successfully locked up. Basically, the West comes all the way down to who finishes in seeds 4-8, with the attention-grabbing wrinkle being that the highest groups in these spots (LAL & Memphis) are struggling and have the toughest schedules, whereas the opposite three golf equipment (Golden State, Minnesota, LAC) are surging.
Lastly, there are two extra storylines to observe. First, Denver and Minnesota have one remaining sport remaining that would have large ramifications on whether or not they meet in spherical one or not. Lastly, the groups within the 7 & 8 spots won’t be too involved about their first-round matchup ought to they safe the seven-seed, given the dearth of respect a few of these extra veteran squads have for Houston. I doubt any crew will purposefully throw video games given how tight every part is, nevertheless it’s nonetheless one thing to observe.
East
The East is rather a lot much less dramatic comparatively. The highest has equally been decided, with the Cavs, Celtics, and Knicks, respectively, locking in these spots. Seeds 4 and 5 belong to the Pacers and Pistons, and the one query is who may have dwelling benefit in that sequence. Detroit is 1.5 video games again of Indiana and has a a lot harder remaining schedule, in order that they’ll seemingly begin the playoffs on the highway.
With the Bucks two video games behind the Pistons and having simply misplaced Damian Lillard, the 3v6 matchup appears set as nicely. Sadly, with out Dame, I don’t see a lot probability of Milwaukee getting previous New York, even with Giannis being the undisputed greatest participant in that matchup.
The play-in is all set too, as Atlanta will face Orlando for the seventh seed whereas the red-hot Bulls tackle the (not extremely popular) Warmth. At this level, solely the Pacers/Pistons sequence appears destined to offer intrigue in spherical one, and every part’s pointing towards an inevitable Cavs-Celtics heavyweight tilt within the East Finals.
This week, please take a look at Jeje’s article on the similarities between the Spurs’ and Pistons’ rebuilds! I by no means thought to check these two franchises, however Jeje makes plenty of attention-grabbing arguments to drive dwelling his level.
Thanks for studying! I hope everybody’s having fun with the ultimate weeks of this loopy NBA season.
All stats courtesy of Cleansing the Glass and NBA Stats.
