2024 NBA Western Convention second-round preview: Thunder vs Mavericks

After lastly exacting revenge on Paul George and the Clippers, Luka will now play the group that was constructed from the PG commerce.

Time actually is a flat circle.

OKC, although, affords a very completely different problem to the Mavericks. Not like an outdated Clippers squad, the Thunder are younger, hungry, and play with tempo. If Dallas are to make the Western Convention Finals, they’ll must provide you with a wholly new sport plan to decelerate Shai and firm.

Can they accomplish that? Let’s discover out.

Be aware: until in any other case specified, all of the common season stats used are from after the All-Star break, when Dallas acquired PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford and OKC started emphasizing defensive rebounding extra.

Key storylines

The rebounding and transition sport

OKC’s Achilles heel for a lot of the season has been their rebounding, however they improved drastically to shut the yr by ending twelfth in defensive rebounding share at 74.5% post-All-Star break. Extra importantly, the Mavs’ offensive rebounding price throughout that span was solely 23.9% (twenty third), which was even worse than OKC’s (24.2%, twenty second).

In different phrases, Dallas doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of the Thunder’s largest weak spot. With neither group closely prioritizing grabbing their very own misses, this naturally implies that they have an inclination to hurry again to their very own finish. In consequence, each side have superb transition defenses: OKC and Dallas had defensive scores of 115.0 (1st) and 121.4 (4th) in transition.

Moreover, the 2 groups completed prime 5 in offensive transition frequency however the Thunder have been miles forward in stopping transition alternatives towards, as opponents solely ran on 12% (2nd) of their possessions however 14.7% (14th) towards Dallas. For the Mavs, the easiest way to get out in transition is by forcing turnovers just like the one beneath.

However, Dallas might want to minimize down on their turnovers and do a greater job of hustling again on protection in the event that they don’t need OKC to dominate the transition battle.

OKC’s mid-range prowess

Regardless of being an elite three-point taking pictures group, OKC’s shot food regimen skews in the direction of the mid-range: 31.6% (eleventh highest league-wide) of their pictures got here from that space through the common season, and so they made 46.2% (sixth) of these makes an attempt, too.

Dallas, in the meantime, is greater than snug with conceding these appears. Opponents tried 34.3% of their pictures within the mid-range towards the Mavericks, which was the fourth-highest mark within the league. To make issues worse, Dallas was additionally scored on on 44.4% of these pictures because the group prioritized rim safety and limiting opponent threes as a substitute.

Put merely, the Mavericks might want to change their defensive strategy to decelerate OKC. If Dallas tries to restrict the quantity of mid-rangers the Thunder takes, then Mark Daigneault may place a heavier emphasis on taking threes — one thing that OKC isn’t used to doing regardless of their elite percentages, which brings us to the subsequent level.

The three-point battle

The Thunder and Mavericks have clashing philosophies in the case of prioritizing threes. OKC made 38.3% (seventh) of their treys however solely 34.8% (twenty fourth) of their makes an attempt got here from behind the road, whereas Dallas hit 36.8% (sixteenth) on a better frequency of 39.1% (seventh).

It’s an analogous story on protection. Whereas the Mavericks restricted their opponents to taking simply 36% (eleventh) of their pictures from three, the Thunder have been extra gracious and allowed 38.6% (twenty fourth) of opponent makes an attempt from deep. OKC restricted the variety of mid-rangers taken towards them too, as simply 28% of opponent pictures are tried in that space, which is good on condition that Dallas is a heavy mid-range taking pictures group as nicely (32.2% shot frequency, ninth). Nonetheless, the Thunder may want to alter their defensive type and emphasize three-point protection if the Mavs get scorching from deep.

The battle across the rim

Given the distinction of shot diets between the 2 groups from the mid-range and three, it isn’t stunning that their rim makes an attempt differ drastically too: 33.6% (tenth highest) of OKC’s makes an attempt come inside 4 toes of the basket, whereas solely 28.7% (twenty seventh) of Dallas’ pictures are taken there.

With that mentioned, each side are elite at ending across the rim. The Thunder and Mavs convert on 68.6% (tenth) and 72.1% (2nd) of their pictures on the basket, and their prowess within the paint displays on protection as nicely — opponents solely shoot 62.9% (4th) in that space towards OKC and 62.1% (2nd) towards Dallas.

Nonetheless, the Thunder appear extra snug with conceding these high-percentage pictures. 33.4% (seventeenth) of opponent makes an attempt come on the rim towards OKC, whereas Dallas limits groups to only 29.8% (eighth). Will the Thunder be as content material to surrender this many appears when it includes Luka lobs to Gafford and drives from Kyrie, who’s maybe the best finisher ever? It’s actually a storyline to observe, and this battle will even be closely influenced by key matchup choices.

Matchup questions

Will Gafford guard Giddey?

With Josh Giddey being the one member of OKC’s beginning lineup who isn’t a dependable risk from three, the Mavs will doubtless match Daniel Gafford with him in order that the latter can roam off of Giddey and patrol the paint, like what Jusuf Nurkić did right here.

The Thunder might doubtlessly counter by getting Giddey to set off-ball screens. If the Mavs swap on protection, Gafford would then be pressured to play on the stage of screens in order that OKC’s shooters wouldn’t get open appears. Even when Dallas’ defenders are advised to battle by way of Giddey’s screens, they’ll nonetheless be a step behind their task and permit the Thunder to take a superb shot or have further time to make performs.

Who guards Chet and JDub?

The larger matchup query for Dallas is who ought to guard Chet and Jalen Williams. Assuming Gafford begins on Giddey and Derrick Jones Jr. on Shai, the apparent transfer could be having PJ Washington take Chet.

Nonetheless, that would go away considered one of Kyrie or Luka remoted on JDub, who’s too massive for the previous and too agile for the latter. Would Jason Kidd be prepared to roll the cube and have Luka guard Chet and assign Washington to JDub as a substitute? Washington’s size and athleticism would match up higher towards Williams and Luka’s 6’7” body can nonetheless each Chet.

X-factor: Josh Giddey and the Thunder’s fifth starter

If OKC needs to power Gafford to protect in house, they may want to interchange Giddey with a greater shooter like Cason Wallace or Isaiah Joe. Each could be an improve defensively, too, with the principle draw back being that the Thunder would lose some playmaking and ballhandling within the beginning group.

Even so, with Shai and JDub nonetheless on the courtroom, it’s a tradeoff price contemplating. OKC’s offense would open up a lot extra and so they wouldn’t want to fret about hiding Giddey on protection, both. It’ll be attention-grabbing to see how shortly Daigneault decides to implement such a glance.

Prediction: Thunder in 6

This must be OKC’s collection to lose. They match up higher with Dallas since Lu Dort and JDub are apparent candidates to protect Luka and Kyrie, whereas the Mavericks don’t have nice choices to placed on the Thunder’s stars. On prime of that, Luka’s knee continues to be bothering him, and OKC’s deeper roster ought to lead to them making the convention finals for the primary time since 2016.

All stats courtesy of Cleansing the Glass and NBA Stats.