New 12 months, usual NBA.
Chaos continues to engulf the Warriors, Giannis continues to be making “suss” jokes, and LeGM is warming up the commerce machine with the deadline arising in a month.
Drama apart, two elite and intertwined groups have been making the rounds these days. After all, I’m speaking in regards to the Clippers and Thunder, who’re on reverse ends of their aggressive cycles however nonetheless decided to make deep postseason runs.
Having these groups match up within the playoffs could be a dream made in heaven, however first, it’s time to interrupt down the play of each side.
The Clippers have figured it out
I do know, I do know. The Clippers ought to by no means be trusted given their historical past, however simply after I thought I used to be out, they pulled me again in.
With Harden becoming a member of the crew only a sport into November, the Clippers went 5-9 that month with the Twenty third-ranked offense (112.9) however Tenth-ranked protection (113.3). Thankfully for them, the script fully flipped in December as they closed the 12 months by going 11-2 with the Third-best offense (125.6), thirteenth protection (116.0), and Fifth-best internet ranking (+9.6).
So, what modified?
Two issues: the offensive duties of the “Large 4” and the return of peak Kawhi.
Starting with the previous, it’s attention-grabbing to see the distribution of touches, seconds per contact, and dribbles per contact for Harden, Russ, PG, and Kawhi between November and December:
November
Touches per sport: Harden (67.60), PG (63.4), Russ (52.10), Kawhi (51.20)
Seconds per contact: Harden (4.94), Russ (4.28), PG (3.74), Kawhi (3.58)
Dribbles per contact: Harden (4.08), Russ (3.76), PG (2.88), Kawhi (2.73)
December
Touches per sport: Harden (76.20), Kawhi (53.70), PG (51.0), Russ (39.80)
Seconds per contact: Harden (5.79), Russ (4.21), Kawhi (3.80), PG (3.40)
Dribbles per contact: Harden (5.29), Russ (3.81), Kawhi (3.03), PG (2.71)
Personally, I anticipated each Harden and Russ’ numbers to dip whereas Kawhi’s and PG’s to rise. As a substitute, Russ’ touches have gone to Harden after he transitioned to a bench position, and there hasn’t been a lot of a change to Kawhi or PG’s numbers.
Nevertheless, touches don’t inform all the story. PG (26.8%) and Kawhi (25.4%) nonetheless lead the crew in utilization, with Harden behind them at 24.7%. Their respective discipline purpose makes an attempt paint an identical story: PG (17.6) and Kawhi (17.3) take essentially the most photographs on the crew by a mile and the 11.2 makes an attempt that Harden averages are his lowest FGA since his Thunder days.
In different phrases, The Beard’s excessive contact whole however low FGA and utilization point out that he’s strictly centered on getting the Clippers into their offense earlier than dumping it off to the 2 wings to complete every possession. That is one of the best of each worlds since Harden is greatest suited to be a playmaker at this stage of his profession, whereas Kawhi and PG are higher off scoring than organising their teammates.
With their roles outlined, the Clippers have begun to play as a collective unit quite than a bunch of particular person stars. On the season, they’re nonetheless final in passes made per sport (249.1) and first in isolations run (12.7), however that latter quantity isn’t a difficulty because it performs to the crew’s energy: the Clippers are averaging a strong 1.10 PPP on isos, which is the third highest mark league-wide.
Most significantly, regardless that their total model hasn’t modified a lot, Harden’s playmaking has created simpler photographs for Kawhi and PG, and Ty Lue has applied extra off-ball motion too.
Take the play beneath for example. The boxscore solely reveals that one go was made, however all 5 Clippers performed a task: Harden because the distributor, PG because the cutter/finisher, Zubac and Mann as the 2 screeners, and Kawhi because the decoy who may be a kick-out possibility.
After all, none of this works if Kawhi isn’t working at his peak. In December, the Enjoyable Man averaged 29.3 factors, 6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on 61.3/50/95.7 splits. Kawhi’s performed on the stage of a surefire #1 possibility on a championship crew once more, and it looks as if he has his burst again.
Within the subsequent clip, he isos and scores towards Julius Randle, and his life is made simpler by the opposite Clippers’ off-ball motion as soon as once more. Harden units the display (what number of occasions has he finished that?), Mann makes the baseline lower in order that Brunson can’t assist, Zubac is within the paint to battle for a possible rebound, and Powell has the choice of reducing or capturing an open three if Kawhi selected to go.
The Clippers’ ceiling nonetheless comes right down to crew cohesion and the well being of Kawhi and PG. If these two might be on the court docket for a whole run, no crew ought to be favored towards LA apart from possibly Denver and Boston. Keep in mind, since they joined forces in 2019, there hasn’t been a season by which the Clippers have had a internet ranking beneath +8.0 when each share the court docket.
Moreover, having Harden offers LA one other security blanket — however not a alternative — ought to considered one of their two premium stars go down. But, it might additionally backfire catastrophically: given the Beard’s historical past, it wouldn’t take a lot for the fats go well with (and maybe his actual self) to begin extra drama.
In the end, my ideas concerning the Clippers have stayed the identical ever since Kawhi and PG teamed up: in the event that they keep wholesome, it’s arduous to see any crew beating them in a seven-game collection. Nevertheless, I’d even be a wealthy man if I earned a cent each time I uttered these phrases.
Wager on the Clippers at your individual peril.
Can OKC win the championship this 12 months?
The Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder have been my Roman Empire ever since Chet tweeted (X-ed?) this cryptic message for the world to see.
Youngsters nowadays and their slang.
Off-court shenanigans apart, I don’t assume anybody anticipated OKC to be this good, this quickly. They’re at present second within the West at 23-10 and solely a sport behind Minnesota for the one-seed by beating the Nuggets, Celtics, and aforementioned Wolves throughout the span of every week.
All indicators level to the Thunder being reputable title contenders — they’ve the 4th-best internet ranking (+8.3), Ninth-best offense (118.8), and 4th-ranked protection (110.5). Extra importantly, they’ve the man, and his identify is Shai-Gilgeous Alexander.
Even after making All-NBA First Staff final 12 months, Shai’s underlying numbers have elevated throughout the board this season, regardless of his counting stats wanting related. To date, his help proportion has elevated from 24.9% to 29.3% (76th percentile) whereas his turnover fee has decreased from 9.6% to simply 6.8% (92nd percentile). Shai’s whole offensive bundle makes him fully unguardable, and his herky-jerky model makes him arguably one of the best perimeter bucket-getter within the league.
Extremely, Shai has additionally elevated his effectivity. He’s now as much as 64.3% in true capturing whereas changing 71% on the rim (92nd percentile) and a Chris Paul-esque 51% within the mid-range (92nd percentile). He’s nonetheless not a lot of a menace from deep, however that doesn’t matter when all the Thunder crew is main the league in three-point proportion at 40.3% and performs 5 out round their celebrity.
Merely put, what makes this OKC assault so scary is that they’re a three-level scoring menace as a unit. The Thunder are center of the pack by way of their total ending across the rim (66.2%, sixteenth) however 2nd in mid-range capturing (47.2%). OKC’s offense may be very numerous too, as their proportion of makes an attempt on the rim, mid-range, and from three all rank between Tenth-Twentieth league-wide.
If issues get slowed down, Shai may also bail them out by going iso. He at present averages 5.1 such possessions a sport and scores a ridiculous 1.21 factors per possession (PPP) on these performs, which is the second-highest determine among the many high 50 gamers by variety of isolations per sport. Behind him, Jalen Williams has emerged as a dependable second perimeter too by averaging a strong 1.17 PPP on isos, though that’s solely on 1.4 possession a sport.
With that stated, there are nonetheless a couple of issues that make me hesitant to anoint them as inner-circle contenders alongside the likes of the Nuggets and Celtics, and maybe the Bucks and Clippers as nicely. For one, OKC received’t preserve capturing over 40% from deep for the remainder of the season — the 1.1% distinction between them and quantity two ranked Miami (39.2%) is as massive because the distinction between Miami and Ninth ranked Houston.
Furthermore, outdoors of the anomalous 2020-21 bubble season when capturing was up throughout the league, solely two groups have completed the season capturing over 39% from deep, not to mention 40%, since 2019. So except OKC continues having probably the greatest capturing seasons in league historical past, their 3-point proportion will seemingly dip right down to the mid-30s quickly in order that by season’s finish, they’ll nonetheless end across the high of the league at about 38-39%.
One other concern is the Thunder’s struggles on the glass. They’re twenty eighth in offensive rebound fee (23.5%) and in addition twenty ninth in defensive rebound fee (68.3%). Such a weak spot may not be closely exploited within the common season, however come playoff time, groups just like the Nuggets, Wolves, and even Lakers will all current issues for OKC.
Total, I believe that the Thunder completely have the expertise and skill to win all of it. They’ve a bonafide top-5 participant in Shai, who, though hasn’t had a lot playoff expertise, proved in FIBA that he reveals up in massive moments, and is destined to guide Canada to gold on this 12 months’s Olympics too. Chet and Williams are second and third choices who’re ok to type a legit Large Three, and Mark Daigneault is among the most modern coaches within the league.
Even so, I’d be shocked if OKC really did win the title, and even made it to the finals. Some assume such a run is unlikely due to how unprecedented a Thunder title could be traditionally — no crew has ever received a championship the 12 months after lacking the playoffs (with out an enormous offseason commerce or signing) and they might even be the youngest title crew in about 50 years — however I disagree. It’s a fallacy to say that one thing is unimaginable by pointing to historical past since nothing’s ever been finished till the primary time it was.
Quite, the actual cause why an OKC championship could be surprising is as a result of their offense will quickly take a dip they usually lack the scale to match up nicely towards the opposite powerhouses within the league. Exterior of Shai, none of their different vital items have playoff expertise both, and the postseason is a completely completely different beast when in comparison with the common season.
Regardless, there’s no denying that OKC goes to be elite for years to return, and different groups ought to be dreading that the Thunder will solely grow to be spookier shifting ahead.
This week, please try Mikey Rouleau’s article on how Wemby is redefining shot-blocking in basketball! As all the time, Mikey did a terrific job of utilizing video to clarify the rookie’s jaw-dropping performs.
Thanks for studying and Completely satisfied New Yr!
All stats courtesy of Cleansing the Glass and NBA Stats.
