King James, welcome to the Tyrese Haliburton Invitational.
Severely, no phrases can precisely describe simply how particular the Pacers guard has been this season, and particularly within the IST: over the previous two video games (the quarters and semi-finals), he has racked up a complete of 53 factors, 28 assists, 17 rebounds, and most impressively, zero turnovers.
Nevertheless, his largest check is but to return. The particular person standing between him and glory in Vegas is just checks be aware a motivated LeBron, who by some means seems just like the 2012 model of himself once more.
So, is Haliburton destined to lift the primary IST trophy, or will LeBron add one other trophy to his unbelievable resume?
Let’s discover out.
Key matchups
Factors within the paint
By this level, everyone knows the story: the Pacers have the most effective offense in league historical past (123.9 Ortg, 1st), whereas the Lakers depend on their elite protection (111.1 Drtg, seventh). Nevertheless, LA’s playstyle appears particularly conducive to scoring towards Indiana, even with out factoring within the latter’s lackluster protection.
On the season, the Pacers have compelled their opponents into taking threes on simply 25.6% of possessions, which is first league-wide by a bullet — second-place Detroit sits at 30.1%. Nevertheless, Indiana additionally provides up the best proportion of photographs on the rim at 40.8%, which is final by a whopping 3.5%.
The Lakers, in the meantime, aren’t an amazing three-point taking pictures group by both frequency (31.4%, twenty seventh) or accuracy (35.4%, twenty third). With that stated, they dwell across the rim by making an attempt 37.2% of their photographs inside 4 toes of the basket (4th highest charge) and are making them at an elite clip as properly (70.1% area objective share, third).
It’ll be attention-grabbing to see if Indiana decides to tweak their whole defensive scheme for this one recreation. In the event that they don’t, the Lakers would possibly really have the ability to sustain with them offensively.
Zone
Within the third quarter of the Pacers’ win towards the Bucks, Milwaukee performed a zone that appeared to flummox Indiana on a number of possessions. Particularly, the Bucks have been capable of get the ball out of Haliburton’s arms at occasions and pressure the Pacers to second-guess their choices.
In keeping with Synergy, although, Indiana nonetheless averaged 1.23 factors per possession on 13 zone possessions towards the Bucks. That’s a surprisingly excessive quantity but it surely doesn’t inform all the story: Milwaukee went on an 11-0 run at one level whereas enjoying zone as a result of it allow them to arrange their offense simpler. Even so, the primary purpose why Indiana was nonetheless profitable towards the Bucks’ zone is as a result of Brook Lopez continued enjoying drop protection, permitting Haliburton and firm to hit open floaters just like the one beneath.
Naturally, this begs the query as as to whether or not the Lakers will attempt enjoying zone too. To this point this season, LA has deployed the scheme on 67 possessions and conceded a complete of 73 factors. That averages to 1.09 factors allowed per possession — an excellent determine. Extra importantly, they’ve solely allowed 1.00 factors whereas enjoying zone towards choose & rolls, which is Indiana’s bread and butter.
On condition that Anthony Davis is extra cellular and higher suited to guarding perimeter gamers, the Lakers additionally don’t must preserve him in a drop, which might make life harder for Indiana. Simply check out the play beneath: despite the fact that AD bit on Franz Wagner’s pump faux, he nonetheless prevented a possible drive by enjoying on the stage of the ball and had an honest restoration to semi-contest Wagner’s shot.
Given AD’s defensive flexibility and Milwaukee’s average success, I’d be shocked if the Lakers don’t at the very least attempt enjoying zone to see how profitable it may be towards Indiana.
Haliburton’s pick-and-rolls
Amongst gamers who’ve run at the very least 100 picks and rolls this season, Haliburton’s 1.28 PPP ranks first by an extended shot — second-place De-Aaron Fox averages “solely” 1.22 PPP. Extra spectacular is the amount of P&Rs that Haliburton runs, as 43.9% of his possessions come from that play kind.
Then again, AD is unsurprisingly elite in defending P&Rs. Amongst gamers who’ve defended 100 pick-and-roll ball handlers, the 0.865 PPP opposing groups common towards his protection ranks nineteenth league-wide. Extra spectacular is the truth that opponents are solely taking pictures 59.6% on the rim when guarded by AD, which is 6% decrease than the league common. Haliburton himself is an excellent finisher, who, within the Bucks recreation, made a ton of powerful layups towards an excellent rim protector in Brook Lopez, however he’ll positively have a harder time scoring on AD each within the mid-range and across the basket.
The excellent news for Indiana, although, is that the success of Haliburton’s P&Rs comes largely from his playmaking. Zach Lowe stated on his latest podcast that the Pacers guard solely shoots out of P&Rs 39% of the time, so even when AD is doing a great job of containing him, the Lakers nonetheless want to forestall different Pacers from ending straightforward buckets that Haliburton units up for them.
Who will guard LeBron?
Of their recreation towards the Bucks, Indiana assigned Aaron Nesmith to be the first guard on Giannis, and plenty of count on him to start out on LeBron too. There’s been some discourse saying that he did a great job on the Greek Freak, however neither the attention check nor the stats again that up.
In 5 possessions, Giannis scored on Nesmith 4 occasions, and with out a lot bother, both. The one shot that Giannis missed was a turnaround fade (which LeBron converts at a a lot greater charge), and the 4 baskets he scored all got here across the basket just like the one beneath.
Despite the fact that LeBron just isn’t the bodily freak that Giannis at present is, he’s nonetheless three inches taller and 35 kilos heavier than Nesmith whereas being a a lot craftier offensive participant than the Bucks celebrity. Plus, even at 39-years-old, the King was nonetheless in higher form and extra athletic than a 23-year-old Zion (who’s most likely taking the Vegas slogan a bit too actually proper now), so it’s solely potential that LeBron might simply drive previous Nesmith like Giannis did.
Merely put, I don’t suppose the Pacers have the personnel nor the scheme that’s wanted to decelerate LeBron. Even when Myles Turner is defending the rim, opponents are solely taking pictures barely beneath the league common towards him across the basket (63%), and LeBron’s at present making an absurd 77% of his photographs in that space — the best mark since his Miami days.
Despite the fact that LA has largely struggled offensively this season, I don’t suppose that they’ll have a lot bother scoring towards the Pacers given the type of play of each groups and the shape that LeBron is in. Furthermore, the King shall be additional incentivized to have the ability to say that he received the first-ever IST, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he stated that this has been a long-time dream of his too.
Whatever the finish outcome, there’s no denying that the IST has been a giant success in its inaugural season, and it ought to solely get higher after tweaks are made transferring ahead.
Prediction: Lakers win 127-115.
All stats courtesy of Cleansing the Glass, NBA Stats, and Synergy Sports activities.
