At my Sunday morning basketball recreation, my buddy John and I talked about how powerful the Western Convention can be this season. For instance, we talked about how a lot expertise the Portland Path Blazers have. At heart, they’ve Deandre Ayton (from the Suns) and Rob Williams (from the Celtics), each of whom have performed large roles in current NBA Finals. Then there’s a stable energy ahead in Jerami Grant, and perimeter gamers embody Matisse Thybulle, Anfernee Simons, Malcom Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson. I nonetheless love Victor Wembanyama’s remark about Scoot: ”He’s actually an important participant. If I used to be by no means born, I believe he would deserve the primary spot.”
Basic, however right here’s the factor about this very proficient Blazers squad: they’re picked to complete final within the Western Convention, which gave me the thought to do an “over and underneath” on the Western Convention earlier than this season begins. This received’t be a deep evaluation of every group. As an alternative, I’ll give the Vegas projection for every group, the variety of wins from final season, a remark or two in regards to the group, and whether or not I might take the over or underneath if playing have been authorized. Oh wait, playing IS authorized. So this can be whether or not I might take the over or underneath if I had sufficient confidence (or stupidity) to truly put some cash down. (I don’t.)
Beginning on the prime:
Nuggets — 52.5 (final season: 53)
The defending champs misplaced most of their coloration. Uncle Jeff Inexperienced went to the Rockets (his eleventh group) and Bruce Brown parlayed his wonderful play for the Nuggets into an enormous contract with the Pacers (the place he’ll miss the mountains). The Nuggets should hope Christian Braun (pronounced Brown) can substitute the opposite Brown and that Nikola Jokic (pronounced The Greatest Participant within the World) can repeat final yr’s beautiful efficiency. I take the OVER.
Suns — 51.5 (final season: 45)
The Suns went all in on offense, including Bradley Beal to an already high-scoring group as soon as they obtained Kevin Durant. However who will play protection? Look for lots of scores in 130s. I take the UNDER.
Warriors — 48.5 (final season: 44)
Plenty of questions. Can Curry keep nice for yet one more yr? Can Klay Thompson grow to be constantly good? Can Chris Paul assist or will he be a distraction? Was dropping Jordan Poole addition by subtraction? Can a group this small proceed to succeed? I take the OVER, however don’t really feel very assured about it. (Emotion over logic? I nonetheless root for Curry’s post-KD group.)
Lakers — 47.5 (final season: 43)
The Lakers recovered from the disastrous Russell Westbrook commerce by eliminating him mid-season and getting higher and deeper with a number of different strikes. Undrafted Austin Reaves could wind up on the record of finest undrafted gamers ever. Will their two different stars — you recognize their names — keep wholesome? I take the OVER.
Mavericks — 45.5 (final season: 38)
The Mavs rolled the cube final yr buying and selling for Kyrie Irving. It didn’t work. They went 8-12 after the commerce and fell out of the playoff race. I don’t assume it is going to work this yr both. UNDER.
Clippers — 45.5 (final season: 44)
Spurs followers have been understandably upset when Kawhi Leonard needed out, resulting in his commerce to the Raptors (which labored for Toronto) after which the Clippers. However would the Spurs have loved paying most cash to Kawhi for the previous a number of years for minimal precise ground time? It has not labored for the Clippers. Kawhi is a really great participant when he can keep on the ground, however he hasn’t been in a position to take action. UNDER.
Grizzlies — 45.5 (final season: 51)
Yet one more group with a forty five.5 projection. That is nicely behind final yr’s win complete of 51, presumably as a result of Ja Morant was hit with a 25-game suspension for “being a whole fool”, “what was he pondering,” and “that’s not what we meant once we stated you have been a gunner,” (quoting from the NBA’s official announcement). However the Grizzlies have gotten used to enjoying nicely with out him for lengthy stretches up to now and may accomplish that once more. Plus, he can be nicely rested when he returns. I take the OVER.
Timberwolves — 44.5 (final season: 42)
The comparatively optimistic Vegas projection should assume that the KAT/Gobert pairing will get higher as they’ve extra time to determine it out and that Anthony Edwards will proceed his ascension into the NBA stratosphere. I agree with the latter, however not the previous. I take the UNDER.
Pelicans — 44.5 (final season: 42)
This group has a variety of guys who’re proficient and play laborious. Sadly, I’m listening to the group’s finest participant is already coasting and individuals are not joyful. If a group is sad initially of the season, that doesn’t bode nicely. I take the UNDER.
Kings — 44.5 (final season: 48)
Final yr’s feel-good story group was blessed with exceptional luck staying wholesome. They gained beneficial playoff expertise in a seven-game collection with the Warriors. The Kings additionally signed EuroLeague MVP Sasha Vezenkov, whom I do know nothing else about. After all, that MVP one factor is fairly spectacular. I don’t assume the Kings can be worse, so I take the OVER.
Thunder — 44.5 (final season: 40)
Really, the Thunder was (have been?) one other feel-good story, behind a transcendent season from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a bunch of different good gamers. And so they add Chet Holmgren, a participant remarkably just like a man the Spurs simply drafted. In addition they have a bunch of excellent draft picks they may use to commerce for an excellent participant mid-season. Though Vegas has them enhancing by a stable 4.5 video games, I nonetheless go along with OVER.
(As an apart, Vegas has seven groups projected to win both 45.5 or 44.5 video games (you recognize, if it was doable to win half a recreation). If Vegas is correct, these seven groups will end in fifth although eleventh place, and thus both make the playoffs, the Play-In recreation or be the odd man out. The distinction between ending fifth or eleventh could also be decided by tie-breaker guidelines.)
Jazz — 37 (final season: 35.5)
Keep in mind when the Jazz was once just like the Spurs by profitable 50+ video games yearly? After all, not like the Spurs, they by no means received all of it. I informed you initially that I didn’t do quite a lot of evaluation, and that goes double for the Jazz. My complete guess is UNDER.
Rockets — 31.5 (final season: 22)
In an try to speed up their timeline, the Rockets spent a bunch of cash on a man everybody likes (Fred VanVleet), one other participant nobody likes (Dillon Brooks) and probably the most liked participant within the league — Boban!! The Rockets additionally employed a wonderful coach (Ime Udoka). Nonetheless, I believe it is going to take Ime a couple of yr to root out all of the unhealthy habits the Rockets have developed over the previous few years. UNDER.
Spurs — 28.5 (final season: 22)
OVER, OVER, OVER.
Blazers — 28.5 (final season: 33)
See my dialogue above. The Blazers’ primary downside can be having to play towards all the opposite Western Convention groups. However I guess (with out truly betting) Scoot can be nice, and the Blazers will play laborious each night time. This could enable them to win some video games towards higher groups who usually are not enjoying that tough. OVER.
So I’ve eight overs and 7 unders, which appears about proper. If I have been to do that once more subsequent weekend, I would go the opposite means on most of the picks. But one more reason I’m not placing precise cash on any of those.
